Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

WDS

Woodside Energy Group Ltd

Fundamental data last updated:November 3, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Energy

industry

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

AU

Next Earnings Date

Pending Announcement

Business Summary

Woodside Energy Group Ltd is an international energy company involved in the full spectrum of hydrocarbon operations. This includes the exploration, evaluation, development, extraction, marketing, and distribution of resources across various global regions, such as Oceania, Asia, Canada, Africa, and beyond. The company's output comprises a range of vital energy commodities: liquefied natural gas (LNG), pipeline natural gas, condensate, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and crude oil. Woodside maintains stakes in numerous key projects, including Greater Browse, Greater Sunrise, Greater Pluto, Greater Exmouth, North West Shelf, Wheatstone, Julimar-Brunello, specific ventures in Canada and Senegal, Greater Scarborough, and Myanmar. Founded in 1954, the company operated as Woodside Petroleum Ltd until its rebranding to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Its corporate base is situated in Perth, Australia.

VALUATION

P/E

13.41 Market Cap ($M USD)

$36.80B

Forward P/E

11.29 PEG

0.60 PRICE TO SALES

2.83 PRICE TO BOOK

1.03 EV / EBITDA

6.00 5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

-2.85%

DCF Value

$75.58

Graham Number

$24.85

Price to FCF

-35.14

EV to FCF

-46.82

Earnings Yield

7.41%

FCF Yield

-2.85%

DIVIDEND

Yield

5.88%

Annual Payout

$1.15

Payout Ratio

72.77%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$1.45

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.72

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$17.20B

Return on Equity (ROE)

7.67%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

27.83%

Debt-to-Equity

0.38 Piotroski F-Score

6 Altman Z-Score

1.78 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

5.96%

Current Ratio

1.59 Quick Ratio

1.46 Net Debt to EBITDA

1.50 Interest Coverage

110.05 Gross Profit margin

32.19%

FCF PER SHARE

$-0.56

REVENUE PER SHARE

$6.90

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

Woodside Energy Group Ltd. appears significantly undervalued when juxtaposed with its DCF Value of $80.57 and Graham Number of $24.85, suggesting a potential mispricing by the market. The Forward P/E of 12.78 indicates a more attractive valuation relative to its current earnings, while the Earnings Yield of 6.64% offers a reasonable return expectation. However, the Altman Z-score of 1.89 raises red flags about financial distress risk, hinting at potential vulnerabilities. Despite these concerns, the stock’s valuation metrics suggest an opportunity for investors willing to navigate its complexities.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, Woodside Energy is positioned to leverage AI and modern tech to optimize exploration and production processes. The integration of AI can enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve decision-making. However, the industry's capital-intensive nature may slow rapid tech adoption.

The Bull Case

For value or GARP investors, Woodside Energy presents a compelling case with its robust ROIC of 5.96% and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6, indicating sound financial health and operational efficiency. The company's operating margin of 27.83% underscores its pricing power in a competitive market. Despite a negative FCF Yield, the company's strategic investments could translate into future growth, making it an attractive play for those betting on long-term capital efficiency.

The Bear Case

The bear case for Woodside Energy is underscored by its negative Free Cash Flow Yield and a Price to FCF ratio of -39.17, signaling cash flow challenges. The stock's proximity to its 52-week high, with a mere 16.78% distance, suggests potential overextension. Additionally, an Altman Z-score below 2.0 highlights financial distress risks, which could deter risk-averse investors. These factors, combined with a high payout ratio of 72.77%, raise concerns about sustainability and growth.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Hold

Average Analyst Price Target

$28.00

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

-0.26

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

29.78%

Distance to 52-Week Low

26.48%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

5.88%

50-DAY SMA

$21.80

200-DAY SMA

$18.97

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.