TGT

Target

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Consumer Defensive

industry

Discount Stores

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/20/26

Business Summary

Target operates a large-format discount retail model blending everyday essentials with discretionary merchandise, driving recurring traffic through necessity-based purchasing. Cash flow is generated through high inventory turnover, private-label penetration, and scale purchasing power that supports competitive pricing while maintaining a 22.90% operating margin. Its moat lies in brand equity, national footprint, and supplier leverage, allowing it to sustain pricing power relative to smaller discount peers. The business thrives on predictable consumer demand cycles, converting steady sales into consistent earnings and dividend distributions.

VALUATION

P/E

15

Market Cap ($M USD)

$55,198

Forward P/E

14.3

PEG

1.2

PRICE TO SALES

0.5

PRICE TO BOOK

3.4

EV / EBITDA

8.4

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

3.70%

Annual Payout

$4.56

Payout Ratio

55.40%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

10+

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

10.90%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$8.16

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$8.51

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

2.70%

Return on Equity (ROE)

22.90%

Operating Margin

4.90%

Debt-to-Equity

1.3

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

3

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

11.40%%

Current Ratio

0.9

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 15x earnings and 14.3x forward earnings, Target is priced like a no-growth retailer despite generating 11.40% ROIC and carrying an Altman Z-Score of 3, which signals solid financial stability. The 1.2 forward PEG suggests the market is assigning only modest growth expectations, reinforced by EPS next year estimated at $8.16 versus current EPS of 8.4. With a Price/Sales of 0.5 and Price/Book of 3.4, the stock screens as a pragmatic GARP setup rather than a distressed deep value play. The balance sheet is not screaming danger, but it is not pristine either, and the valuation implies the market sees steady but unspectacular execution. This is a fairly priced compounder with limited multiple expansion unless margins or growth reaccelerate.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Discount Stores operator in Consumer Defensive, Target’s survival hinges on logistics efficiency, data analytics, and pricing intelligence rather than bleeding-edge AI innovation. The industry benefits from AI-driven inventory optimization and demand forecasting, which directly enhance operating margin leverage. Given its scale and NYSE listing, the company is structurally positioned to integrate retail tech improvements faster than smaller competitors.

The Bull Case

The bull thesis rests on capital efficiency and durability. An 11.40% ROIC in a low-margin retail environment demonstrates disciplined capital allocation, and a Piotroski F-Score of 6 signals stable, improving fundamentals rather than deterioration. Operating Margin at 22.90% is robust for a discount retailer, and the 1.3 TTM yield paired with a Dividend Per Share of 3.70% provides tangible shareholder return. With a Forward P/E of 14.3 and PEG of 1.2, investors are not overpaying for earnings durability, and the Altman Z-Score of 3 reinforces solvency comfort. Add Institutional Ownership at $125.19 and a Consensus Rating of 4.10%, and you have a stock that institutions are unlikely to abandon aggressively.

The Bear Case

The bear case is leverage and fragility. Debt/Equity of 4.90% combined with a Current Ratio of 0.9 signals constrained liquidity flexibility in a downturn. EPS is projected to decline from 8.4 to $8.16 next year, and yet the PEG Forward of 1.2 implies growth that may not fully materialize. Short % of Float at 10.90% is not trivial and suggests a meaningful cohort is betting on operational or margin compression. Return on Equity at 2.70% is strikingly low relative to ROIC, raising questions about capital structure efficiency and shareholder value creation.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

4.10%

Analyst Consensus

2.6

Average Analyst Price Target

$125.19

Institutional Ownership %

86.30%

1-Year Beta

0.88

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.30%%

Distance to 52-Week High

96.70%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

146.10%%