BFS

Saul Centers

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Real Estate

industry

REIT - Retail

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/14/26

Business Summary

Saul Centers operates as a retail-focused REIT, generating cash flow by owning and leasing shopping centers and mixed-use retail properties to tenants under contractual rental agreements. Its moat is rooted in property location, long-term leases, and the stickiness of community-centered retail assets that generate recurring rental income. Cash flow stability comes from diversified tenant rent streams rather than transactional property sales, supporting its dividend profile. Competitive positioning depends on disciplined capital allocation, maintaining occupancy, and preserving balance sheet stability to fund redevelopment and sustain distributions.

 


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VALUATION

P/E

31.1

Market Cap ($M USD)

$829

Forward P/E

42.3

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

2.8

PRICE TO BOOK

6.8

EV / EBITDA

14.8

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

DCF Value

Graham Number

Price to FCF

EV to FCF

Earnings Yield

FCF Yield

DIVIDEND

Yield

7.00%

Annual Payout

$2.36

Payout Ratio

216.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

2.20%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$1.09

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$0.80

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

3.60%

Return on Equity (ROE)

8.60%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

41.30%

Debt-to-Equity

5.2

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

0.3

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

4.70%

Current Ratio

0.3

Quick Ratio

Net Debt to EBITDA

Interest Coverage

Gross Profit margin

FCF PER SHARE

REVENUE PER SHARE

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Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 31.1x earnings and an even more demanding 42.3x forward P/E, BFS Saul Centers is priced like a growth REIT despite generating just 3.60% ROE and 4.70% ROIC. The Altman Z-Score of 0.3 is distress-level, signaling real balance sheet fragility, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5 suggests only middling financial strength. A market cap of $829M against an 8.60% operating margin and 0.80 sales growth next year does not justify a premium multiple, and the combination of elevated valuation and weak solvency metrics suggests the market is not mispricing this as cheap — it is pricing in optimism that the fundamentals do not currently support.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a retail REIT, BFS Saul Centers operates in a property segment exposed to e-commerce and evolving tenant behavior, making technological adaptability more tenant-driven than internally driven. AI’s influence will primarily manifest through tenant mix optimization and data-driven leasing rather than proprietary innovation. Its resilience depends less on owning technology and more on leasing to necessity-based or service-oriented retailers that are less vulnerable to digital substitution.

The Bull Case

A disciplined value or GARP investor could argue that the 5.2 TTM yield combined with a 7.00% dividend per share offers meaningful income support relative to a $829M market cap. Debt/Equity at 41.30% is not excessive for a REIT structure, and a Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates operational stability rather than deterioration. While ROIC of 4.70% and ROE of 3.60% are not elite, they remain positive, and an 8.60% operating margin in retail real estate suggests properties are cash-flowing assets rather than distressed holdings. With short interest at just 2.20% of float and institutional ownership at 45.50%, the shareholder base appears relatively stable, limiting the probability of forced downside from aggressive bearish positioning.

The Bear Case

The bear case is straightforward: a 42.3 forward P/E with no PEG provided and just 0.80 in sales growth next year is a growth multiple without growth. The Altman Z-Score of 0.3 is a flashing red signal of financial stress, and a current ratio of 0.3 underscores liquidity tightness. ROE of 3.60% and ROIC of 4.70% are subpar relative to the 6.8 price-to-book multiple, implying investors are paying a steep premium over book for modest capital efficiency. Add in a payout ratio listed at $2.36 and structural exposure to retail real estate, and you have a setup where any earnings miss — with the next report on 05/14/26 — could compress the 31.1 P/E rapidly.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.40%

Analyst Consensus

1

Average Analyst Price Target

$45.50

Institutional Ownership %

46.80%

1-Year Beta

0.29

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

47.00%%

Distance to 52-Week High

94.70%

Distance to 52-Week Low

116.20%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

50-DAY SMA

200-DAY SMA

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.