NVAX

Novavax, Inc.

Fundamental data last updated:November 6, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Healthcare

industry

Biotechnology

Exchange

NASDAQ

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

Pending Announcement

Business Summary

Novavax operates in the competitive biotechnology space, focusing on vaccine development. Their business model relies on cutting-edge research to create effective vaccines, aiming to secure contracts and partnerships with governments and health organizations. The company's moat lies in its proprietary technology and potential first-mover advantage in emerging infectious diseases. However, financial instability could undermine its ability to maintain and expand this competitive edge.

 


Analyze NVAX on TradingView

VALUATION

P/E

-6.79

Market Cap ($M USD)

$1.70B

Forward P/E

12.86

PEG

0.05

PRICE TO SALES

4.11

PRICE TO BOOK

-8.91

EV / EBITDA

-8.79

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

-2.56%

DCF Value

$-72.59

Graham Number

N/A

Price to FCF

-39.05

EV to FCF

-41.44

Earnings Yield

-14.59%

FCF Yield

-2.56%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.00%

Annual Payout

$0.00

Payout Ratio

0.00%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$1.51

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

-$0.59

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$377.50M

Return on Equity (ROE)

159.85%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

-54.94%

Debt-to-Equity

-1.55

Piotroski F-Score

1

Altman Z-Score

-5.68

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

-36.14%

Current Ratio

2.33

Quick Ratio

2.30

Net Debt to EBITDA

-0.51

Interest Coverage

-18.80

Gross Profit margin

77.85%

FCF PER SHARE

$-0.26

REVENUE PER SHARE

$2.51

Analyze NVAX on TradingView

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

The market’s current valuation of Novavax seems to be a stark mispricing relative to its DCF Value, which is deeply negative. The Forward P/E of 12.86 suggests some optimism about future earnings, yet the negative Earnings Yield and a disastrous Altman Z-score of -5.68 paint a picture of financial distress. With a Price/Book ratio also in the negative, the market is signaling severe skepticism about the company’s asset value. This is a company on shaky ground, with the numbers suggesting a high-risk, speculative play rather than a safe investment.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating in the biotechnology sector, Novavax is inherently positioned to leverage AI for drug discovery and development efficiencies. The rapid pace of tech innovation in healthcare could provide opportunities for cost reduction and enhanced R&D productivity. However, the company's current financial instability may hinder its ability to capitalize on these advancements effectively.

The Bull Case

For the bold GARP investor, Novavax offers a tantalizing opportunity. The PEG Forward ratio of 0.05 indicates potential undervaluation relative to growth expectations. Despite a negative ROIC, the company's ability to potentially turn around its capital efficiency could be a game-changer. The consensus "Buy" rating suggests institutional confidence, and the high Sales Growth forecast for next year could signal a turnaround in operational performance.

The Bear Case

Novavax's structural weaknesses are glaring. The negative Price/Book and EV to EBITDA ratios highlight a company struggling with profitability and asset management. The Altman Z-score indicates a high risk of bankruptcy, while the Piotroski F-Score of 1 suggests poor operational efficiency. With a negative FCF Yield and Price to FCF, cash flow issues are a significant concern, making this stock a risky bet.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$18.00

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

2.44

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

29.75%

Distance to 52-Week Low

39.92%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

15.75%

50-DAY SMA

$10.39

200-DAY SMA

$9.28

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.