NOAH

Noah Holdings

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Asset Management

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

China

Next Earnings Date

05/27/26

Business Summary

Noah Holdings generates revenue by managing assets for high-net-worth individuals and institutions, earning fees tied to assets under management and performance. Its moat, when functioning properly, comes from client relationships, distribution reach, and trust within wealth management networks. Scale allows operating leverage, where incremental assets can expand margins beyond the current 6.00% operating level. The durability of cash flow depends on asset retention, market performance, and the firm’s ability to maintain advisory credibility in competitive wealth channels.

 


VALUATION

P/E

10.3

Market Cap ($M USD)

$655

Forward P/E

1

PEG

0.1

PRICE TO SALES

2

PRICE TO BOOK

0.5

EV / EBITDA

0

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

DCF Value

Graham Number

Price to FCF

EV to FCF

Earnings Yield

FCF Yield

DIVIDEND

Yield

5.80%

Annual Payout

$0.58

Payout Ratio

50.70%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$1.19

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$10.57

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

5.70%

Return on Equity (ROE)

6.00%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

28.10%

Debt-to-Equity

0

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

2.4

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

5.90%

Current Ratio

3.9

Quick Ratio

Net Debt to EBITDA

Interest Coverage

Gross Profit margin

FCF PER SHARE

REVENUE PER SHARE

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 10.3x earnings with a forward P/E of 1 and a PEG of 0.1, the market is pricing NOAH as if earnings are either unsustainable or about to collapse, despite an estimated EPS of $1.19 next year. A Price/Book of 0.5 and Price/Sales of 2 signal deep value territory, while an Altman Z-Score of 2.4 suggests moderate financial stability—not distressed, but not fortress-like either. With ROE at 5.70% and ROIC at 5.90%, this is not a high-return compounder, yet the valuation implies near-zero confidence in forward earnings power. The disconnect between a forward P/E of 1 and even modest profitability metrics suggests potential mispricing, but only if earnings estimates are credible. This is statistically cheap, but priced for skepticism.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As an Asset Management firm within Financial Services, NOAH operates in a segment increasingly shaped by AI-driven portfolio analytics, client personalization, and operational automation. Firms that successfully integrate AI can expand margins and improve client retention without significant balance sheet expansion. With a 6.00% operating margin, technology-enabled efficiency gains could materially impact profitability if executed well.

The Bull Case

A value or GARP investor buys this because the balance of valuation versus stability is asymmetric. A Price/Book of 0.5 implies the market values the company at half its book value, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5 signals average but not deteriorating financial health. ROIC at 5.90% exceeding the 6.00% operating margin profile shows the business generates real returns on invested capital, albeit modest. The Current Ratio of 3.9 indicates strong short-term liquidity, reducing near-term solvency risk. Combined with a forward P/E of 1 and PEG of 0.1, the setup resembles a classic deep-value re-rating candidate if earnings of $1.19 materialize.

The Bear Case

The red flags are structural. ROE of 5.70% is weak for an asset manager, signaling limited competitive advantage or fee compression. Debt/Equity at 28.10% is not extreme but adds leverage risk in a cyclical financial sector, while an Altman Z-Score of 2.4 sits in the caution zone rather than signaling strength. EPS is currently 0, meaning the entire thesis hinges on next year’s $1.19 estimate, and Sales Growth Next Year listed at $10.57 lacks clarity relative to scale. With TTM Yield at 0 and inconsistent dividend metrics, capital return visibility is poor.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.70%

Analyst Consensus

3

Average Analyst Price Target

$12.73

Institutional Ownership %

40.90%

1-Year Beta

0.99

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.60%%

Distance to 52-Week High

78.00%

Distance to 52-Week Low

123.60%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

50-DAY SMA

200-DAY SMA

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.