LUCK

Lucky Strike

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Consumer Cyclical

industry

Leisure

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/14/26

Business Summary

Lucky Strike operates location-based entertainment venues centered on bowling, dining, and social experiences, monetizing foot traffic through lane rentals, food and beverage sales, and event bookings. The model depends on high utilization and premium in-venue spending, which explains the strong 40.50% operating margin when volumes hold. Its moat is experiential rather than technological — prime locations, brand recognition, and event-driven repeat traffic create localized competitive barriers. Cash generation is driven by maximizing per-visit spend and leveraging fixed venue costs, making scale and occupancy the core determinants of profitability.

 


VALUATION

P/E

-

Market Cap ($M USD)

$1,170

Forward P/E

35.8

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

1

PRICE TO BOOK

-

EV / EBITDA

12

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

DCF Value

Graham Number

Price to FCF

EV to FCF

Earnings Yield

FCF Yield

DIVIDEND

Yield

2.70%

Annual Payout

$0.23

Payout Ratio

-

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

1

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$0.66

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$0.24

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

5.20%

Return on Equity (ROE)

40.50%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

12.10%

Debt-to-Equity

-

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

0.6

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

4.20%

Current Ratio

0.7

Quick Ratio

Net Debt to EBITDA

Interest Coverage

Gross Profit margin

FCF PER SHARE

REVENUE PER SHARE

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 35.8x forward earnings with a negative EPS estimate next year of -$0.66, the market is pricing in optimism despite visible earnings compression. The absence of a trailing P/E combined with an Altman Z-Score of 0.6 signals real balance sheet stress and elevated financial risk, not safety. A 1x Price/Sales ratio might appear reasonable, but with ROIC at just 4.20% and a Current Ratio of 0.7, capital efficiency and liquidity are thin. This is not a misunderstood compounder — it’s a leveraged cyclical trading at a growth multiple while flashing distress signals.

As a Consumer Cyclical name in the Leisure industry, the business is experience-driven and relatively insulated from direct AI disruption. However, modern tech integration in booking systems, dynamic pricing, and customer engagement platforms will be essential to protect margins. The company’s ability to maintain a 40.50% operating margin suggests some operational leverage, but sustained tech reinvestment will be necessary to remain competitive.

A value-oriented investor could argue that 1x sales for a company generating a 40.50% operating margin is compelling, especially with a Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicating moderate financial stability. ROIC at 4.20% is positive, not destructive, and Return on Equity of 5.20% shows the company is still producing shareholder returns despite cyclical headwinds. Institutional ownership at 11.40% leaves room for future accumulation if fundamentals stabilize. If management can defend margins and avoid deeper earnings deterioration, the current valuation could offer operating leverage upside into the next cycle.

The red flags are impossible to ignore. Debt/Equity of 12.10% paired with an Altman Z-Score of 0.6 and a Current Ratio of 0.7 screams constrained financial flexibility. Forward P/E of 35.8 against negative forward EPS and no PEG visibility implies investors are paying for growth that is not materializing. EPS next year projected at -$0.66 while the stock carries a $1,170M market cap suggests valuation risk if earnings revisions continue downward. This is a highly cyclical operator with leverage and deteriorating earnings — a dangerous mix late in a consumer cycle.

United States

The company operates physical leisure venues that monetize consumer discretionary spending through experiential entertainment. Revenue is driven by on-site spending, where high fixed-cost infrastructure enables strong operating leverage, reflected in the 40.50% operating margin. Cash generation depends on maintaining traffic volumes and maximizing per-visit spend, making scale and location density critical advantages. The moat is not technological but experiential — brand recognition, prime real estate, and operational efficiency create barriers that smaller competitors struggle to replicate.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Consumer Cyclical Leisure business, AI is not a core earnings driver but an operational enhancer. Technology can optimize pricing, booking systems, and customer data monetization, but it will not fundamentally alter capital intensity or cyclicality. The company’s resilience to tech disruption depends more on experiential demand than digital transformation.

The Bull Case

A value-oriented investor could argue the business generates real operating power, evidenced by a 40.50% operating margin and positive ROIC of 4.20%. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 suggests middling but not deteriorating fundamentals, implying some internal stability. Return on Equity of 5.20% is modest yet positive, and Price/Sales of 1 keeps the revenue multiple grounded. If management stabilizes earnings and avoids further balance sheet stress, the combination of strong margins and reasonable sales valuation could offer asymmetric upside relative to the $1,170M market cap.

The Bear Case

The balance sheet is the flashing red siren: Debt/Equity at 12.10% combined with a Current Ratio of 0.7 and an Altman Z-Score of 0.6 signals fragility. Forward earnings collapsing to -0.66 while the stock trades at 35.8x forward earnings is valuation dissonance. ROIC at 4.20% is barely above mediocrity, and institutional ownership at $11.40 suggests limited deep-pocket conviction. With Sales Growth Next Year listed as $0.24 and no PEG available, there is no quantified growth support to justify paying a growth multiple for a cyclical leisure operator.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

28.20%

Analyst Consensus

1.73

Average Analyst Price Target

$11.40

Institutional Ownership %

89.20%

1-Year Beta

1.3

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

4.10%%

Distance to 52-Week High

73.20%

Distance to 52-Week Low

149.00%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

50-DAY SMA

200-DAY SMA

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.