HCI

HCI Group

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Insurance - Property & Casualty

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/14/26

Business Summary

HCI Group operates as a Property & Casualty insurer, generating cash through underwriting premiums and disciplined risk selection. Profitability hinges on pricing risk accurately, controlling loss ratios, and investing float efficiently, which explains the significance of its 27.60% operating margin and 26.70% ROIC. The moat in this business is analytical underwriting capability combined with capital discipline—if risk is priced better than peers, excess returns compound quickly. Over time, consistent underwriting profits and investment income from float create internally funded growth without constant equity dilution.

 


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VALUATION

P/E

6.6

Market Cap ($M USD)

$1,939

Forward P/E

8.4

PEG

0.4

PRICE TO SALES

2.1

PRICE TO BOOK

1.9

EV / EBITDA

1.8

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

DCF Value

Graham Number

Price to FCF

EV to FCF

Earnings Yield

FCF Yield

DIVIDEND

Yield

1.10%

Annual Payout

$1.60

Payout Ratio

6.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

0.00%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$24.58

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$17.78

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

7.80%

Return on Equity (ROE)

27.60%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

-

Debt-to-Equity

0.1

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

-

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

26.70%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Net Debt to EBITDA

Interest Coverage

Gross Profit margin

FCF PER SHARE

REVENUE PER SHARE

Analyze HCI on TradingView

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 6.6x trailing earnings and 8.4x forward earnings, HCI is priced like a no-growth or structurally impaired insurer despite a 0.4 forward PEG ratio that signals aggressive earnings expansion relative to price. The spread between a 6.6 P/E and a forward estimate implying material EPS acceleration suggests the market either distrusts the $24.58 EPS next year figure or is pricing in volatility typical of Property & Casualty underwriting cycles. A 27.60% operating margin and 26.70% ROIC are not distressed metrics—they are capital-efficient and profitable—yet the stock trades at just 1.9x book and 2.1x sales. The absence of an Altman Z-Score leaves balance sheet safety unquantified, but on pure earnings power versus valuation, this screens as statistically mispriced to the upside.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Property & Casualty insurer, HCI operates in a data-driven risk-pricing business where AI can directly enhance underwriting accuracy and claims efficiency. The industry is structurally positioned to benefit from predictive analytics, automation in claims processing, and dynamic pricing models. Companies that integrate advanced modeling into underwriting can defend margins like the current 27.60% operating margin and potentially expand them.

The Bull Case

A GARP or deep value investor buys this because the capital efficiency is undeniable: 26.70% ROIC against a 7.80% ROE suggests strong returns on invested capital relative to equity returns, hinting at disciplined capital allocation. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates solid financial condition without flashing distress signals. Trading at 6.6x earnings with a 0.4 PEG Forward implies growth is being priced at a discount, not a premium. Add a 1.10% dividend with a $1.60 payout ratio and minimal short interest at 0.00%, and you have a setup where pessimism is low, profitability is high, and valuation leaves room for multiple expansion.

The Bear Case

The red flags are buried in the inconsistencies: EPS is listed at 1.8 while EPS Next Year is $24.58, an enormous implied jump that the 8.4 forward P/E does not fully reconcile—either volatility is extreme or estimates are unstable. Return on Equity at 7.80% is modest relative to the 1.9x price-to-book ratio, suggesting equity capital is not compounding at an elite rate. Debt/Equity and Altman Z-Score are not provided, removing visibility into balance sheet leverage risk in a catastrophe-exposed insurance model. The 0.1 TTM Yield and Dividend 5-Year Avg of 0 imply limited income history, meaning shareholders rely almost entirely on underwriting execution and earnings consistency.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

3.40%

Analyst Consensus

1.57

Average Analyst Price Target

$231.67

Institutional Ownership %

81.40%

1-Year Beta

0.4

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

14.40%%

Distance to 52-Week High

70.90%

Distance to 52-Week Low

109.50%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

50-DAY SMA

200-DAY SMA

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.