Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

CTOS

Custom Truck One Source, Inc.

Fundamental data last updated:September 20, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Industrials

industry

Rental & Leasing Services

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

US

Next Earnings Date

Pending Announcement

Business Summary

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, other infrastructure-related industries in North America. It operates through Equipment Rental Solutions, Truck and Equipment Sales, and Aftermarket Parts and Services segments. The Equipment Rental Solutions owns new and used specialty equipment, including truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, digger derricks, and other machinery and equipment. The Truck and Equipment Sales segment offers new equipment for sale to be used for end-markets which can be modified to meet customers specific needs. The Aftermarket Parts and Services segment provides truck and equipment maintenance and repair services as well as sale of specialized aftermarket parts. The company was formerly known as Nesco Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. in April 2021. Custom Truck One Source, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

VALUATION

P/E

-127.65

Market Cap ($M USD)

$2.22B

Forward P/E

9.88 PEG

0.01 PRICE TO SALES

1.12 PRICE TO BOOK

2.75 EV / EBITDA

12.75 5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

-1.49%

DCF Value

$5.12

Graham Number

N/A

Price to FCF

-67.00

EV to FCF

-141.71

Earnings Yield

-0.78%

FCF Yield

-1.49%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.00%

Annual Payout

$0.00

Payout Ratio

0.00%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$0.08

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$0.99

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$2.82B

Return on Equity (ROE)

-2.18%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

7.92%

Debt-to-Equity

2.99 Piotroski F-Score

6 Altman Z-Score

1.04 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

6.10%

Current Ratio

1.30 Quick Ratio

0.25 Net Debt to EBITDA

6.72 Interest Coverage

1.02 Gross Profit margin

19.91%

FCF PER SHARE

$-0.15

REVENUE PER SHARE

$8.75

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc. is priced for perfection, yet the fundamentals tell a different story. The stock has traded significantly above its DCF value, suggesting a potential overvaluation. With a negative earnings yield and a concerning Altman Z-score of 1.03, the financial health appears precarious. The Forward P/E of 14.06 indicates some optimism, but the negative Price to FCF ratio and high debt levels raise red flags about sustainability. The market may be mispricing the risk relative to its intrinsic value.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating in the Industrials sector, CTOS is positioned in a space ripe for AI-driven efficiencies. As a player in Rental & Leasing Services, integrating AI could streamline operations and enhance asset utilization. However, the company must innovate swiftly to maintain competitiveness in this evolving landscape.

The Bull Case

For the value-driven investor, CTOS offers intriguing prospects. The ROIC of 6.10% suggests competent capital allocation, while a Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates moderate financial health. Despite a negative FCF Yield, the operating margin of 7.92% hints at underlying pricing power. These factors could appeal to those betting on a turnaround or improved operational efficiency.

The Bear Case

CTOS faces significant structural risks that cannot be ignored. The Price/Book ratio of 2.73 and Price/Sales of 1.11 suggest the stock is not cheap. With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.72, the company is heavily leveraged, posing a risk in a rising interest rate environment. Additionally, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high raises concerns about technical overextension.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$12.33

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

1.41 Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

4.50%

Distance to 52-Week Low

57.16%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

60.00%

50-DAY SMA

$8.25

200-DAY SMA

$6.74

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.