BHP

BHP Group

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Basic Materials

industry

Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

Australia

Next Earnings Date

01/06/26

Business Summary

BHP is a large-scale diversified mining operator that extracts and sells industrial metals and bulk commodities into global markets. Its moat is rooted in asset scale, long-life reserves, and capital intensity—barriers that limit new entrants due to enormous upfront investment requirements. Cash generation is driven by volume production multiplied by commodity pricing, with operating leverage magnifying profitability during strong cycles, as reflected in its 20.30% operating margin. The business converts resource ownership and logistical infrastructure into cash flow, and when commodity prices cooperate, its 15.60% ROIC demonstrates the earnings power embedded in its asset base.

VALUATION

P/E

19.1

Market Cap ($M USD)

$194,831

Forward P/E

14.8

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

3.6

PRICE TO BOOK

3.9

EV / EBITDA

7.2

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

3.50%

Annual Payout

$2.66

Payout Ratio

54.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-6.30%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$4.04

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$5.20

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

-2.40%

Return on Equity (ROE)

20.30%

Operating Margin

39.90%

Debt-to-Equity

0.6

Piotroski F-Score

3

Altman Z-Score

3.7

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

15.60%%

Current Ratio

1.7

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

BHP is trading at 19.1x earnings with a materially lower 14.8x forward P/E, implying the market expects earnings normalization yet still assigns a reasonable multiple for a global materials franchise with scale. The Altman Z-Score of 3.7 signals low near-term bankruptcy risk, reinforcing balance sheet stability despite cyclical exposure. However, the combination of a negative -2.40% Return on Equity and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 suggests deteriorating fundamental quality beneath the surface. At a $194,831M market cap, this is not a distressed mispricing but a cyclical asset trading at a moderate valuation with mixed internal signals.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Basic Materials company in Other Industrial Metals & Mining, BHP sits upstream in the supply chain that feeds infrastructure, electrification, and data center expansion tied to AI growth. Modern AI infrastructure requires massive physical inputs—metals, mining output, and industrial raw materials—making the company indirectly levered to global digitization. However, it is a capital-intensive operator rather than a technology innovator, so its AI exposure is demand-driven, not margin-expansive.

The Bull Case

A value or GARP investor could justify owning this name on capital efficiency and operating durability. A 15.60% ROIC combined with a 20.30% operating margin shows the core assets generate meaningful returns despite commodity cyclicality. The forward P/E of 14.8 versus a current 19.1 multiple implies earnings compression is already priced in, creating room for upside if estimates stabilize. Institutional ownership at $70.28% signals strong professional conviction, and a 1.7 current ratio plus a 3.7 Altman Z-Score suggest liquidity and solvency are not immediate concerns. For a capital-intensive miner, that combination of double-digit ROIC and stable margins is not trivial.

The Bear Case

The bear case starts with deteriorating quality metrics: a Piotroski F-Score of 3 is fundamentally weak, and Return on Equity at -2.40% is a major red flag for shareholder value creation. Debt/Equity at 39.90% is manageable but meaningful in a cyclical industry where cash flows can swing violently. The absence of a PEG Forward reading removes visibility into growth-adjusted valuation, while the projected EPS Next Year of $4.04 versus current EPS of 7.2 suggests a sharp earnings decline. Add in a Short % of Float at -6.30% and inconsistent dividend metrics, and you have a stock exposed to earnings compression risk in a late-cycle commodity environment.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.70%

Analyst Consensus

2.89

Average Analyst Price Target

$70.28

Institutional Ownership %

4.10%

1-Year Beta

1.07

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.00%%

Distance to 52-Week High

92.30%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

173.40%%