Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

ASPN

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

Fundamental data last updated:June 10, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Industrials

industry

Construction

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

US

Next Earnings Date

08/06/2026

Business Summary

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

VALUATION

P/E

-4.54

Market Cap ($M USD)

$509.28M

Forward P/E

5.04 PEG

0.03 PRICE TO SALES

2.21 PRICE TO BOOK

2.38 EV / EBITDA

-8.76

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

6.98%

DCF Value

$-0.02

Graham Number

N/A

Price to FCF

14.32 EV to FCF

13.00 Earnings Yield

-22.03%

FCF Yield

6.98%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.00%

Annual Payout

$0.00

Payout Ratio

0.00%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$1.35

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.22

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$54.94B

Return on Equity (ROE)

-42.12%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

98.82%

Debt-to-Equity

0.61 Piotroski F-Score

3 Altman Z-Score

-1.90

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

70.52%

Current Ratio

2.88 Quick Ratio

2.52 Net Debt to EBITDA

0.89 Interest Coverage

40.61 Gross Profit margin

11.93%

FCF PER SHARE

$0.43

REVENUE PER SHARE

$2.78

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

The market seems to have mispriced Aspen Aerogels, Inc. significantly. With a DCF value that barely registers, the stock’s snapshot price suggests a disconnect between intrinsic value and market perception. The Forward P/E of 4.13 indicates potential undervaluation, especially when juxtaposed with the impressive ROIC of 73.86%. However, the negative Altman Z-score of -2.23 raises red flags about financial distress, while the negative earnings yield underscores current profitability challenges. This is a complex picture of potential growth marred by immediate financial health concerns.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating within the construction industry, Aspen Aerogels is positioned to leverage AI and modern tech shifts by enhancing material efficiency and reducing costs. Their focus on advanced aerogel technology could align well with AI-driven optimization in construction processes. However, their adaptability will depend on management's ability to integrate these technologies effectively.

The Bull Case

For the value or GARP investor, Aspen Aerogels presents a compelling case. The robust ROIC of 73.86% signals exceptional capital efficiency, suggesting management's adeptness at generating returns. A solid FCF Yield of 8.52% indicates strong cash flow generation, while the Piotroski F-Score of 3, though modest, hints at some financial health improvements. The operating margin of 98.82% suggests significant pricing power, potentially allowing the company to weather economic fluctuations.

The Bear Case

Despite some strengths, Aspen Aerogels faces significant structural risks. The negative P/E ratio and earnings yield highlight profitability issues, while the Altman Z-score suggests potential financial instability. The Price/Book ratio of 1.95 and Price/Sales of 1.81 may not justify the current valuation given these risks. Additionally, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high could indicate technical overextension, posing a risk for new investors.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$4.88

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

2.83 Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

59.15%

Distance to 52-Week Low

62.57%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

-3.70%

50-DAY SMA

$4.12

200-DAY SMA

$4.75

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.