ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Fundamental data last updated:October 19, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Technology

industry

Semiconductors

Exchange

NASDAQ

County of HQ

NL

Next Earnings Date

01/27/2027

Business Summary

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

VALUATION

P/E

46.67 Market Cap ($M USD)

$632.67B

Forward P/E

16.78 PEG

0.09 PRICE TO SALES

14.42 PRICE TO BOOK

25.65 EV / EBITDA

34.35 5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

3.71%

DCF Value

$317.50

Graham Number

$213.49

Price to FCF

26.93 EV to FCF

26.64 Earnings Yield

2.38%

FCF Yield

3.71%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.53%

Annual Payout

$7.78

Payout Ratio

22.23%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$35.17

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$97.82

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$86.08B

Return on Equity (ROE)

63.91%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

38.55%

Debt-to-Equity

0.22 Piotroski F-Score

9 Altman Z-Score

10.92 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

44.66%

Current Ratio

1.49 Quick Ratio

1.01 Net Debt to EBITDA

-0.37

Interest Coverage

0.00 Gross Profit margin

54.34%

FCF PER SHARE

$55.19

REVENUE PER SHARE

$103.04

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

ASML’s valuation is a paradox of extremes. Despite a staggering market cap, the stock traded significantly above its DCF value, suggesting a market exuberance that might not align with intrinsic worth. The Forward P/E of 16.86 indicates a more reasonable future outlook, yet the Earnings Yield of 1.72% is underwhelming, hinting at limited immediate returns. However, the Altman Z-score of 14.67 underscores robust financial health, signaling low bankruptcy risk and a solid growth trajectory. This juxtaposition of high valuation and strong fundamentals paints a complex picture for investors.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating in the semiconductor industry, ASML is at the forefront of technological innovation, crucial for AI advancements. Its cutting-edge lithography machines are indispensable for producing the next generation of chips, positioning it well to capitalize on AI-driven demand. This strategic positioning ensures resilience amidst rapid tech shifts.

The Bull Case

For the value-driven investor, ASML offers compelling reasons to buy. With an impressive ROIC of 44.59%, the company demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency, translating investments into substantial returns. The Piotroski F-Score of 8 signals strong financial health, while a robust operating margin of 35.42% highlights its pricing power. Despite a modest FCF Yield, the company's ability to generate cash is evident, making it a formidable player in the semiconductor space.

The Bear Case

Yet, ASML is not without its vulnerabilities. The Price/Book ratio of 28.28 and Price/Sales of 17.47 suggest a stock priced for perfection, leaving little room for error. The EV to EBITDA multiple of 44.38 further underscores its premium valuation, potentially deterring value investors. Additionally, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high raises concerns of technical overextension, posing a risk of correction.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$2,330.75

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

1.30 Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

21.84%

Distance to 52-Week Low

42.36%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

18.80%

50-DAY SMA

$1739.63

200-DAY SMA

$1577.22

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.