ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Fundamental data last updated:May 13, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Technology

industry

Semiconductors

Exchange

NASDAQ

County of HQ

NL

Next Earnings Date

07/15/2026

Business Summary

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

VALUATION

P/E

60.28 Market Cap ($M USD)

$603.49B

Forward P/E

24.51 PEG

0.17 PRICE TO SALES

14.87 PRICE TO BOOK

24.05 EV / EBITDA

38.73 5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

1.79%

DCF Value

$363.59

Graham Number

$177.73

Price to FCF

55.95 EV to FCF

55.36 Earnings Yield

2.00%

FCF Yield

1.79%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.58%

Annual Payout

$7.50

Payout Ratio

25.67%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$25.98

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$63.88

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$6.22T

Return on Equity (ROE)

51.97%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

34.79%

Debt-to-Equity

0.14 Piotroski F-Score

7 Altman Z-Score

12.99 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

42.21%

Current Ratio

1.36 Quick Ratio

0.78 Net Debt to EBITDA

-0.41

Interest Coverage

0.00 Gross Profit margin

52.60%

FCF PER SHARE

$23.24

REVENUE PER SHARE

$87.42

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

ASML’s valuation is a paradox. Despite a staggering market cap, the stock traded significantly above its DCF value, suggesting market exuberance. Yet, the Forward P/E of 24.92 and a PEG ratio of 0.17 indicate potential undervaluation relative to growth expectations. The Altman Z-score of 13.17 underscores financial robustness, while an earnings yield of 1.97% hints at modest income generation. This juxtaposition of high valuation and strong fundamentals makes ASML a complex play for discerning investors.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

In the semiconductor industry, ASML is uniquely positioned to capitalize on AI advancements. Its cutting-edge lithography technology is crucial for producing the chips that power AI applications. This strategic alignment with tech evolution ensures resilience and relevance in a rapidly shifting landscape.

The Bull Case

For the value-driven investor, ASML offers compelling reasons to buy. A robust ROIC of 42.21% highlights exceptional capital efficiency, while a Piotroski F-Score of 7 signals strong financial health. The operating margin of 34.79% and a healthy FCF yield, despite being modest, reflect solid cash generation capabilities. These metrics suggest ASML's pricing power and operational prowess, making it an attractive proposition for those seeking growth at a reasonable price.

The Bear Case

However, the stock's lofty valuation multiples raise red flags. A Price/Book ratio of 24.41 and Price/Sales of 15.09 suggest it is priced for perfection. The proximity to its 52-week high indicates technical overextension, posing a risk of correction. Furthermore, a low earnings yield and high EV to EBITDA ratio of 39.31 highlight potential overvaluation concerns, making it vulnerable to market volatility.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$1,694.00

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

1.37 Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

1.88%

Distance to 52-Week Low

56.35%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

8.42%

50-DAY SMA

$1404.59

200-DAY SMA

$1139.75

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.