AWI

Armstrong World Indus

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Industrials

industry

Building Products & Equipment

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/28/26

Business Summary

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance operates as a mortgage REIT, originating and investing in commercial real estate loans and related debt instruments. It generates cash flow from the spread between borrowing costs and the interest income earned on its loan portfolio, using leverage to amplify returns. Its competitive positioning stems from credit underwriting expertise and access to capital markets rather than hard assets. The moat is relationship-driven deal sourcing and structured credit capability, but cash generation is highly sensitive to credit cycles, funding costs, and asset performance rather than long-term contractual rental streams.

VALUATION

P/E

24.8

Market Cap ($M USD)

$7,516

Forward P/E

18.9

PEG

1.6

PRICE TO SALES

4.7

PRICE TO BOOK

8.4

EV / EBITDA

14.3

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.70%

Annual Payout

$1.29

Payout Ratio

17.70%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

7

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

10.10%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$7.13

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$9.30

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

6.70%

Return on Equity (ROE)

34.30%

Operating Margin

19.70%

Debt-to-Equity

0.6

Piotroski F-Score

8

Altman Z-Score

7.2

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

24.20%%

Current Ratio

1.5

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 13.4x earnings and 10.3x forward earnings, ARI screens optically inexpensive, especially with a Price/Book of $0.80 suggesting the market values it at a 20% discount to book. However, the Altman Z-Score of 0.1 is flashing extreme financial distress risk, which materially undermines any simplistic “cheap” narrative. A PEG of 1.2 implies only modest growth relative to valuation, and with Return on Equity at -1.10%, profitability is currently impaired. The market is not obviously mispricing growth; it is pricing in balance sheet risk and earnings fragility. This is a statistically cheap REIT with real solvency questions embedded in the discount.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a mortgage REIT in the Real Estate sector, ARI’s exposure to AI is indirect and largely limited to underwriting efficiency, risk modeling, and portfolio analytics. Technology can enhance credit selection and servicing oversight, but it does not fundamentally alter spread-based lending economics. Its resilience depends far more on capital markets conditions and credit performance than on technological disruption.

The Bull Case

A disciplined deep value investor could argue the setup is asymmetrically attractive: a 0.80x Price/Book combined with a 7 Piotroski F-Score signals improving operational metrics beneath headline volatility. Operating Margin of 6.00% and ROIC of 5.90% demonstrate that the core lending engine is still generating positive returns on invested capital despite sector stress. With a Forward P/E of 10.3 and EPS next year estimated at $0.81, the earnings outlook implies stabilization. The $1,506M market cap against these metrics suggests a small-cap credit vehicle that could re-rate sharply if credit losses normalize. For GARP investors, modest growth (PEG 1.2) at a discounted asset valuation is the central appeal.

The Bear Case

The red flags are impossible to ignore. An Altman Z-Score of 0.1 signals acute financial distress risk, while Debt/Equity of 42.10% adds leverage sensitivity in a rate-dependent business. Return on Equity at -1.10% indicates shareholder capital is not currently compounding, and the 430.00% TTM Yield paired with a 9.20% dividend per share and a payout ratio of $1.00 raises serious sustainability concerns. Institutional ownership at 11.63% is relatively low, suggesting limited smart-money conviction, and the Mean Consensus Target Price of $2.17 implies muted upside expectations. This is a levered credit vehicle where one misstep in asset quality could overwhelm the thin margin structure.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

3.30%

Analyst Consensus

2

Average Analyst Price Target

$210.89

Institutional Ownership %

103.60%

1-Year Beta

0.85

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

1.30%%

Distance to 52-Week High

85.20%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

136.40%%