ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Consumer Defensive

industry

Farm Products

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/05/26

Business Summary

ADM generates cash by originating, processing, and distributing agricultural commodities at global scale, monetizing spreads between raw inputs and processed outputs. Its moat is built on logistics infrastructure, storage networks, and entrenched relationships across the food and feed supply chain. Scale allows it to operate on thin margins—evident in the 4.70% operating margin—while still producing steady cash flow through volume and asset turnover. The business is less about brand power and more about asset intensity, trade flows, and risk management capabilities that smaller competitors cannot easily replicate.

VALUATION

P/E

31.3

Market Cap ($M USD)

$33,602

Forward P/E

14.4

PEG

5

PRICE TO SALES

0.4

PRICE TO BOOK

1.5

EV / EBITDA

13.9

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

2.90%

Annual Payout

$2.08

Payout Ratio

91.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

10+

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

7.00%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$2.23

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$4.86

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

3.40%

Return on Equity (ROE)

4.70%

Operating Margin

1.80%

Debt-to-Equity

0.4

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

3.1

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

4.50%%

Current Ratio

1.4

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 31.3x earnings with a Forward P/E of 14.4, the market is signaling a sharp earnings normalization story rather than structural growth. The compression between current P/E and forward P/E implies expectations of materially different forward earnings power, yet a PEG Forward of 5 suggests investors are paying a steep premium relative to expected growth. Financially, the Altman Z-Score of 3.1 indicates the balance sheet is stable and not in distress territory, but with Return on Equity at just 3.40% and ROIC at 4.50%, capital efficiency is mediocre at best. This is not a broken company, but it is arguably priced as if a cyclical rebound will materialize cleanly—leaving little room for execution error.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Farm Products operator within Consumer Defensive, ADM operates in a capital-intensive, logistics-driven business where AI adoption is more incremental than disruptive. Efficiency gains will likely come from supply chain optimization, inventory analytics, and commodity risk modeling rather than product innovation. The industry is resilient to technological displacement, but AI is unlikely to dramatically expand margins beyond the current 4.70% operating level without structural cost reform.

The Bull Case

A disciplined value or GARP investor could justify ownership based on stability and institutional sponsorship. A Price/Sales ratio of 0.4 and Price/Book of 1.5 suggest the stock is not aggressively priced relative to its asset base, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5 signals operational neutrality rather than deterioration. Institutional Ownership at 63.60% shows serious capital backing, and the 3.1 Altman Z-Score supports solvency confidence. With a Current Ratio of 1.4 and Operating Margin of 4.70%, this is a steady operator in a defensive sector, offering measured cash generation and a Dividend Per Share of 2.90% that may appeal to income-focused mandates.

The Bear Case

The bear case is rooted in efficiency and leverage. A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80% signals meaningful leverage relative to modest profitability metrics, and with ROE at 3.40% and ROIC at 4.50%, returns barely justify balance sheet risk. The PEG Forward of 5 is a major red flag—growth expectations do not justify the multiple, particularly with Sales Growth Next Year listed at 4.86. Short % of Float at 7.00% indicates a non-trivial bearish positioning, and a Mean Consensus Target Price of 3.12 compared to a Market Cap of $33,602 suggests either disconnect in expectations or lack of near-term upside conviction.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

4.30%

Analyst Consensus

3.12

Average Analyst Price Target

$63.60

Institutional Ownership %

88.20%

1-Year Beta

0.17

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.70%%

Distance to 52-Week High

94.00%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

157.00%%