ABR

Arbor Realty Trust

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Real Estate

industry

REIT - Mortgage

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/01/26

Business Summary

Arbor Realty Trust operates as a mortgage REIT, generating income by originating and investing in real estate-related loans and structured finance products. Its cash flow engine is the spread between borrowing costs and the yields earned on its loan portfolio, amplified by leverage. The moat is not technological but structural: access to capital markets, underwriting expertise, and long-standing borrower relationships create repeat deal flow. However, because the model depends heavily on credit performance and funding stability, its competitive edge is cyclical rather than impregnable.

VALUATION

P/E

13.4

Market Cap ($M USD)

$1,448

Forward P/E

7.2

PEG

2.3

PRICE TO SALES

3.1

PRICE TO BOOK

0.6

EV / EBITDA

-

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

16.00%

Annual Payout

$1.20

Payout Ratio

237.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-1.90%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$0.56

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.05

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

15.10%

Return on Equity (ROE)

3.60%

Operating Margin

43.10%

Debt-to-Equity

2.2

Piotroski F-Score

3

Altman Z-Score

0.2

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

8.70%%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 13.4x earnings and just 7.2x forward earnings, the market is clearly discounting Arbor Realty Trust’s near-term outlook, but the 2.3 PEG ratio implies that growth is not cheap relative to expectations. A Price/Book of 0.6 suggests deep value optics, yet the Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signals severe balance sheet stress and potential financial fragility. The combination of a modest 15.10% ROE and a razor-thin 3.60% operating margin tells me this is not a premium-quality compounder but a leveraged yield vehicle trading at a distressed multiple for a reason. This is not a clean mispricing; it’s a balance sheet risk story wearing a value mask.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a mortgage REIT in the Real Estate sector, ABR’s exposure to AI is indirect and operational rather than product-driven. Technology improvements in underwriting, risk modeling, and portfolio surveillance could enhance efficiency, but they do not fundamentally alter the economics of spread-based lending. Its resilience to tech disruption is moderate because real estate credit intermediation remains relationship- and capital-driven, not platform-disrupted.

The Bull Case

A deep value investor will immediately focus on the 0.6 Price/Book ratio, which implies the market is pricing the equity at a steep discount to stated book value. A 15.10% Return on Equity and 8.70% ROIC indicate that, despite macro pressure, the firm is still generating returns above many capital-intensive peers. The forward P/E of 7.2 combined with estimated EPS next year of $0.56 suggests earnings normalization could materially re-rate the stock if credit conditions stabilize. Even with a Piotroski F-Score of 3 signaling weak financial momentum, contrarians could argue that the low valuation already reflects that deterioration, creating asymmetry if operating margins expand from the current 3.60%.

The Bear Case

The red flags here are not subtle. An Altman Z-Score of 0.2 is distress-level, and a Piotroski F-Score of 3 reinforces deteriorating financial strength. A PEG Forward of 2.3 contradicts the superficial cheapness of the 7.2 forward P/E, implying growth is insufficient relative to risk, while a 43.10% Debt/Equity ratio adds leverage sensitivity in a rate-driven mortgage REIT model. The 3.60% operating margin leaves minimal room for credit losses or funding shocks, and with only 5 days until the next earnings report, volatility risk is immediate and tangible.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.00%

Analyst Consensus

3.83

Average Analyst Price Target

$8.50

Institutional Ownership %

68.40%

1-Year Beta

0.93

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

2.90%%

Distance to 52-Week High

59.60%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

105.50%%