NLY

Annaly Capital Management

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Real Estate

industry

REIT - Mortgage

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/21/26

Business Summary

Annaly Capital Management operates as a mortgage REIT that generates cash flow by borrowing capital and investing in mortgage-related assets, capturing the spread between asset yields and funding costs. Its economic engine is leverage applied to interest rate spreads, amplified across a large portfolio to produce distributable income. The moat is not brand-driven but scale-driven: access to capital markets, portfolio diversification, and risk management infrastructure create barriers for smaller competitors. Cash generation depends on disciplined hedging, balance sheet turnover, and maintaining favorable financing conditions rather than on organic revenue growth.

VALUATION

P/E

7.6

Market Cap ($M USD)

$15,905

Forward P/E

7.5

PEG

222

PRICE TO SALES

6.3

PRICE TO BOOK

1.1

EV / EBITDA

-

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

12.70%

Annual Payout

$2.80

Payout Ratio

95.90%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

1

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-4.50%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$2.92

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$2.95

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

35.30%

Return on Equity (ROE)

11.60%

Operating Margin

91.10%

Debt-to-Equity

2

Piotroski F-Score

4

Altman Z-Score

0

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

13.90%%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 7.6x earnings and 7.5x forward earnings, NLY screens statistically cheap, but this is not a clean deep-value setup. The market is assigning a low multiple despite a 35.30% Return on Equity, which superficially suggests efficiency, yet the Altman Z-Score of 0 is a serious financial distress signal that cannot be ignored. A PEG Forward of 222 implies growth expectations are either negligible or misaligned with valuation, and the combination of an 11.60% operating margin with 91.10% Debt/Equity reinforces that this is a highly levered income vehicle, not a growth compounder. The stock is not obviously mispriced; it is priced like a leveraged yield instrument with balance sheet risk, and the forward multiple reflects that reality.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a mortgage REIT, NLY’s exposure to AI is indirect and operational rather than transformative. Technology improvements may enhance risk modeling and portfolio optimization, but AI will not materially change its core spread-based earnings structure. Its resilience depends more on capital markets access and rate environments than on technological disruption.

The Bull Case

A disciplined value investor could justify ownership based on capital efficiency and income orientation. A 35.30% ROE paired with a 13.90% ROIC signals that capital deployment, despite leverage, is producing meaningful returns relative to cost structures. The 11.60% operating margin shows the firm retains spread income after expenses, and a Price/Book of 1.1 suggests the market is not assigning a significant premium to net assets. With a Piotroski F-Score of 4, fundamentals are middling but not collapsing, and a 12.70% dividend per share yield creates a tangible cash return profile that can anchor total return expectations for GARP-oriented income investors willing to tolerate cyclicality.

The Bear Case

The red flags are structural and substantial. Debt/Equity at 91.10% defines the business model as balance-sheet heavy and acutely sensitive to funding costs and asset repricing. The Altman Z-Score of 0 is a flashing distress indicator, and a PEG Forward of 222 suggests that whatever growth exists is either anemic or not translating into earnings expansion. A Short % of Float of -4.50% and Institutional Ownership of $24.21 indicate questionable positioning dynamics, while a Payout Ratio of $2.80 against volatile earnings capacity raises sustainability concerns. This is a leveraged carry trade masquerading as stable income.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.00%

Analyst Consensus

1.86

Average Analyst Price Target

$24.21

Institutional Ownership %

60.70%

1-Year Beta

0.72

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.10%%

Distance to 52-Week High

90.30%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

133.40%%