AMSF

AMERISAFE

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Insurance - Specialty

Exchange

Nasdaq

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/22/26

Business Summary

Community Trust Bancorp operates as a regional banking franchise generating revenue primarily through net interest income—capturing the spread between deposits and loans—and fee-based services tied to core banking relationships. Its moat is relational rather than structural: localized deposit bases and entrenched customer relationships create stickiness that larger national banks struggle to replicate in smaller markets. The bank monetizes trust and proximity, converting low-cost deposits into higher-yielding commercial and consumer loans. Sustainable cash generation hinges on disciplined underwriting, stable credit performance, and maintaining deposit loyalty in a competitive regional landscape.

VALUATION

P/E

13.4

Market Cap ($M USD)

$621

Forward P/E

15.4

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

2

PRICE TO BOOK

2.5

EV / EBITDA

9.4

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

4.80%

Annual Payout

$1.58

Payout Ratio

62.90%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

10+

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

7.20%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$2.48

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$2.15

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

6.20%

Return on Equity (ROE)

18.70%

Operating Margin

-

Debt-to-Equity

0

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

-

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

18.70%%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 11.9x earnings and 10.7x forward earnings, CTBI screens optically cheap, but the valuation discount is not screamingly mispriced given a 2.1 forward PEG and a deeply troubling Altman Z-Score of 0.4. The market is pricing this as a slow-growth regional bank with balance sheet fragility risk, not as a compounder. A 4.30% ROE and 11.50% operating margin are underwhelming for a bank trading at 1.4x book, suggesting mediocre capital efficiency. The forward multiple implies mild earnings expansion, but the distress signal from the Z-Score keeps this firmly in “cautious value” territory rather than high-conviction deep value.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a regional bank in Financial Services, CTBI’s AI exposure is primarily operational—credit underwriting automation, fraud detection, and back-office efficiency. Technology adoption in this segment is about cost compression and risk management rather than exponential growth. Its resilience depends on execution in digital banking infrastructure rather than disruptive AI upside.

The Bull Case

A disciplined value or GARP investor could justify a position based on the 10.7 forward P/E against an estimated $5.44 in next-year EPS and a solid 24.00% ROIC, which signals that capital is being deployed at attractive incremental returns. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates reasonable financial stability, not distress, and institutional ownership at $69.00% suggests smart money is engaged. With a 1.4 price-to-book and 4.1 price-to-sales ratio, the stock sits in a zone where moderate earnings stability can drive multiple expansion. If operating margins at 11.50% hold and earnings materialize as forecasted, the market could rerate the stock modestly upward given the still-compressed forward multiple.

The Bear Case

The structural risks are non-trivial: a 49.40% debt-to-equity ratio in combination with a catastrophic 0.4 Altman Z-Score screams balance sheet vulnerability. A 2.1 PEG ratio undermines the “cheap growth” narrative, suggesting earnings growth does not justify even the modest valuation. Short interest at 6.60% of float indicates a measurable bearish cohort positioning against the stock. Add in a thin 0.1 TTM yield alongside a 3.20% dividend per share USD and a $2.12 payout ratio figure that signals potential inconsistency, and you have a capital allocation story that lacks clarity and confidence.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

2.10%

Analyst Consensus

2.6

Average Analyst Price Target

$42.00

Institutional Ownership %

100.50%

1-Year Beta

0.28

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

1.90%%

Distance to 52-Week High

66.10%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

103.40%%