AFG

American Financial Group

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Insurance - Property & Casualty

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/29/26

Business Summary

American Financial Group operates as a specialized Property & Casualty insurer, generating revenue through underwriting premiums and investing the insurance float. The core cash engine is disciplined risk selection—pricing policies above expected loss costs—combined with investment income earned on collected premiums before claims are paid. Its moat is rooted in underwriting expertise, niche market positioning, and the ability to maintain 17.50% operating margins in a competitive insurance landscape. Sustainable value creation hinges on maintaining ROIC at 13.90% while scaling premium volume without eroding underwriting discipline.

VALUATION

P/E

13

Market Cap ($M USD)

$10,858

Forward P/E

10.9

PEG

1

PRICE TO SALES

1.3

PRICE TO BOOK

2.3

EV / EBITDA

8.8

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

2.60%

Annual Payout

$3.52

Payout Ratio

32.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

10+

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

12.00%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$10.08

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$12.03

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

4.40%

Return on Equity (ROE)

17.50%

Operating Margin

-

Debt-to-Equity

0.4

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

-

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

13.90%%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 13x earnings and 10.9x forward earnings, AFG trades at a clear discount to the broader market despite positive EPS expansion to $10.08 next year and a PEG of 1, implying growth is being fairly priced rather than overvalued. The spread between current EPS of 8.8 and forward estimates suggests tangible earnings momentum, yet the market cap of $10,858M paired with a modest 1.3x sales multiple signals restrained expectations. With no Altman Z-Score provided and no Debt/Equity data disclosed, balance sheet transparency is incomplete, but a 17.50% operating margin and 13.90% ROIC indicate a business that generates real economic profit. This looks more like a conservatively valued compounder than a distressed asset, suggesting the market is pricing stability rather than upside optionality.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Property & Casualty insurer, AFG sits in a data-intensive industry where underwriting precision and risk modeling are increasingly AI-driven. Firms that leverage predictive analytics can structurally improve loss ratios and pricing accuracy, reinforcing operating margins like the current 17.50%. The sector is not technologically obsolete, but competitive edge will increasingly depend on superior data analytics rather than distribution alone.

The Bull Case

A value-oriented or GARP investor buys this because the math works: 10.9x forward earnings for a company generating 13.90% ROIC and 17.50% operating margins is disciplined capital allocation at a reasonable price. The Piotroski F-Score of 5 is neutral but not distressed, suggesting operational stability rather than deterioration. EPS is expected to climb from 8.8 to 10.08, while the PEG of 1 implies growth is being acquired at a fair multiple, not a speculative premium. Add in a dividend profile showing a $3.52 payout against 8.8 in EPS, and the company retains earnings capacity while still returning capital, making it attractive for institutions seeking steady compounding over cyclical speculation.

The Bear Case

The red flags are subtle but real: Return on Equity is just 4.40%, which is weak for an insurer and signals mediocre equity efficiency relative to its 2.3x price-to-book valuation. Short interest at 12.00% of float is elevated, indicating a meaningful cohort betting against the story. The absence of Debt/Equity and Altman Z-Score data limits clarity into leverage and solvency strength, which is critical in insurance underwriting cycles. Additionally, a PEG of 1 suggests the stock is fairly valued, not cheap, meaning any underwriting misstep or reserve shock could compress the multiple quickly.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

2.20%

Analyst Consensus

2.56

Average Analyst Price Target

$140.50

Institutional Ownership %

68.50%

1-Year Beta

0.39

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

21.00%%

Distance to 52-Week High

87.10%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

108.40%%