Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

ALMS

Alumis Inc. Common Stock

Fundamental data last updated:June 12, 2026

We may earn a commission from partner links. This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate.

company profile

SECTOR

Healthcare

industry

Biotechnology

Exchange

NASDAQ

County of HQ

US

Next Earnings Date

08/12/2026

Business Summary

Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

VALUATION

P/E

-11.27

Market Cap ($M USD)

$2.64B

Forward P/E

16.77 PEG

0.10 PRICE TO SALES

314.38 PRICE TO BOOK

4.72 EV / EBITDA

-6.11

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

-14.27%

DCF Value

$1.12

Graham Number

N/A

Price to FCF

-7.01

EV to FCF

-6.93

Earnings Yield

-8.87%

FCF Yield

-14.27%

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.00%

Annual Payout

$0.00

Payout Ratio

0.00%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$1.90

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.28

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$87.58B

Return on Equity (ROE)

-54.63%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

-5364.02%

Debt-to-Equity

0.12 Piotroski F-Score

1 Altman Z-Score

12.35 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

-75.03%

Current Ratio

7.51 Quick Ratio

7.51 Net Debt to EBITDA

0.07 Interest Coverage

0.00 Gross Profit margin

89.63%

FCF PER SHARE

$-3.02

REVENUE PER SHARE

$0.07

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

The market’s current valuation of ALMS Alumis Inc. is a paradox of extremes. Despite a staggering negative earnings yield and a DCF value that suggests severe overvaluation, the Forward P/E indicates optimism for future profitability. The Altman Z-score of 10.34 suggests financial stability, yet the negative ROIC and operating margin paint a grim picture of current operational efficiency. The stock’s price is extended above its DCF, hinting at speculative fervor rather than intrinsic value.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

In the biotechnology sector, ALMS Alumis Inc. is well-positioned to leverage AI advancements for drug discovery and personalized medicine. The industry's rapid tech evolution aligns with the company's potential to innovate and streamline research processes. This adaptability is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in a tech-driven landscape.

The Bull Case

For the optimistic investor, ALMS Alumis Inc. offers a tantalizing glimpse of future growth. The Forward PEG ratio of 0.12 is a beacon for value investors, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Despite current inefficiencies, the company's high gross profit margin indicates potential pricing power. A robust current ratio of 4.34 underscores its liquidity, providing a cushion for strategic investments.

The Bear Case

However, the bear case is equally compelling. The stock's astronomical Price/Sales ratio of 121.14 and Price/Book of 8.22 signal a valuation bubble. With a negative FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2, the company's financial health appears precarious. The technical overextension near its 52-week high further exacerbates the risk of a sharp correction.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$39.33

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

-0.29

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

42.99%

Distance to 52-Week Low

87.10%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

6.33%

50-DAY SMA

$23.70

200-DAY SMA

$15.36

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.