ALMS

Alumis

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Healthcare

industry

Biotechnology

Exchange

Nasdaq

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/13/26

Business Summary

Casella Waste Systems operates as an integrated waste management company, collecting, transferring, recycling, and landfilling solid waste for residential, commercial, and municipal customers. The business generates cash through recurring collection contracts and disposal fees, benefiting from route density and vertical integration into landfill assets. Ownership or control of disposal infrastructure creates localized pricing power, as customers depend on consistent waste removal with limited alternatives. Its moat is rooted in regulatory barriers, capital intensity, and logistical networks that make replication costly and slow for new entrants.

VALUATION

P/E

-

Market Cap ($M USD)

$2,931

Forward P/E

-

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

81.3

PRICE TO BOOK

9.7

EV / EBITDA

-5.9

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

-

Annual Payout

-

Payout Ratio

-

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$2.86

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

-$3.23

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

211.10%

Return on Equity (ROE)

-80.80%

Operating Margin

-1886.90%

Debt-to-Equity

0.1

Piotroski F-Score

3

Altman Z-Score

10

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

-81.70%%

Current Ratio

4.3

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 500+ P/E and 55.1 forward P/E, the market is pricing CWST as a long-duration growth compounder despite clear evidence of weak underlying profitability. A PEG of 8.8 signals extreme overvaluation relative to growth, and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places the company in a gray zone where balance sheet risk is not trivial. With operating margin at just 0.50% and ROIC at 1.40%, this is not a capital-efficient business today. The valuation implies future operational inflection that is nowhere visible in the current return profile, making the stock look aggressively priced relative to its financial resilience.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Waste management is an operationally intensive industry where route optimization, fleet efficiency, and automation can benefit from AI deployment. As a Nasdaq-listed waste operator, CWST operates in a sector where data-driven logistics and landfill optimization can improve cost control over time. However, the current 0.50% operating margin suggests that technological leverage has not yet translated into meaningful profitability expansion.

The Bull Case

A GARP-oriented investor could argue that the company sits in a defensive, essential-service industry with recurring revenue characteristics, supported by a $5,524M market cap and 3x sales valuation that is not excessive for infrastructure-like assets. A Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates financial conditions are stable rather than deteriorating, and a current ratio of 1.3 suggests manageable short-term liquidity. Return on equity at 6.90% and ROIC at 1.40% are positive, implying the business is generating returns above zero while maintaining institutional ownership at 113.50%, signaling strong professional sponsorship. With a Forward P/E of 55.1 versus a trailing P/E above 500, the market may be anticipating normalization in earnings power, which—if realized—could compress the apparent valuation dramatically.

The Bear Case

The bear case is overwhelming. A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.90 is elevated, particularly for a business generating only a 0.50% operating margin and 1.40% ROIC, leaving minimal cushion against operational shocks. A PEG of 8.8 screams overpayment for growth, while a 500+ trailing P/E suggests earnings quality or sustainability issues relative to the quoted EPS of 17.5 and next year estimate of $0.12. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 indicates balance sheet risk is not negligible, and a payout ratio of "-" alongside a minimal 0.8 TTM yield provides little income support. This is a leveraged, low-margin operator trading at growth-stock multiples without growth-stock returns.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

12.90%

Analyst Consensus

1.17

Average Analyst Price Target

$38.40

Institutional Ownership %

71.50%

1-Year Beta

1.32

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.60%%

Distance to 52-Week High

75.30%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

835.10%%