AA

Alcoa Corporation

Fundamental data last updated:October 28, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Basic Materials

industry

Aluminum

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

01/28/2027

Business Summary

Alcoa's business model revolves around producing and selling aluminum products, leveraging economies of scale to maintain cost leadership. Its competitive moat lies in its integrated operations, from mining to finished products, ensuring control over quality and supply chain. The company locks in customers through long-term contracts and a reputation for reliability. By focusing on innovation and sustainability, Alcoa aims to strengthen its market position and drive future growth.

 


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VALUATION

P/E

6.48

Market Cap ($M USD)

$10.00B

Forward P/E

5.51

PEG

0.07

PRICE TO SALES

0.70

PRICE TO BOOK

1.21

EV / EBITDA

4.30

5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

7.58%

DCF Value

$15.27

Graham Number

$63.79

Price to FCF

13.20

EV to FCF

13.75

Earnings Yield

15.27%

FCF Yield

7.58%

DIVIDEND

Yield

1.06%

Annual Payout

$0.40

Payout Ratio

6.94%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$5.79

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$6.89

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$14.67B

Return on Equity (ROE)

21.40%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

11.28%

Debt-to-Equity

0.58

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

1.85

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

9.17%

Current Ratio

2.31

Quick Ratio

1.66

Net Debt to EBITDA

0.17

Interest Coverage

12.52

Gross Profit margin

21.93%

FCF PER SHARE

$2.87

REVENUE PER SHARE

$54.23

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Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

Alcoa Corporation’s valuation presents a compelling case for deep value investors. The stock traded significantly below its DCF Value and Graham Number, suggesting a market mispricing. With a Forward P/E of 5.51 and an Earnings Yield of 15.27%, the company appears undervalued, offering a robust earnings potential. However, the Altman Z-score of 1.85 signals caution, indicating potential financial distress. Despite this, the low PEG Forward ratio of 0.07 highlights strong growth prospects relative to its price.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

In the aluminum industry, Alcoa's exposure to AI and tech shifts is indirect but significant. As a materials provider, its role in supplying lightweight, durable materials for tech advancements is crucial. The company must innovate in production efficiency to remain competitive in an increasingly tech-driven market.

The Bull Case

For GARP investors, Alcoa shines with a ROIC of 9.17% and a solid FCF Yield, indicating efficient capital use and cash generation. The Piotroski F-Score of 5 suggests moderate financial health, while an operating margin of 11.28% underscores its pricing power. These metrics paint a picture of a company capable of delivering shareholder value through strategic capital allocation and operational efficiency.

The Bear Case

Despite its strengths, Alcoa faces structural risks. The Altman Z-score raises red flags about financial stability, and the stock's distance from its 52-week high suggests potential overvaluation concerns. The Price/Book ratio of 1.21 and Price/Sales of 0.70 may seem reasonable, but the low FCF Per Share and EV to FCF ratio of 13.75 indicate cash flow challenges. These factors could hinder its ability to weather economic downturns.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Average Analyst Price Target

$60.43

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

1.74

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

122.58%

Distance to 52-Week Low

7.36%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

20.53%

50-DAY SMA

$45.78

200-DAY SMA

$57.03

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.