AA

Alcoa

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Basic Materials

industry

Aluminum

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/16/26

Business Summary

Alcoa generates cash by mining, refining, and producing aluminum products that feed directly into industrial, transportation, and infrastructure supply chains. The business model is scale-driven: margin strength depends on operational efficiency and cost discipline across commodity cycles. Its moat is not brand power but asset intensity, vertical integration, and global production infrastructure that create high barriers to entry. Cash flow expands when aluminum pricing and operating leverage align, making capital allocation and balance sheet management the true determinants of shareholder returns.

VALUATION

P/E

16.7

Market Cap ($M USD)

$19,269

Forward P/E

11.8

PEG

1.5

PRICE TO SALES

1.5

PRICE TO BOOK

3.2

EV / EBITDA

11

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.60%

Annual Payout

$0.40

Payout Ratio

9.10%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$4.40

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$6.18

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

0.80%

Return on Equity (ROE)

18.90%

Operating Margin

5.90%

Debt-to-Equity

0.4

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

2.2

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

15.30%%

Current Ratio

1.4

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 16.7x earnings and 11.8x forward earnings, AA is trading at a notable forward compression that signals either cyclical normalization or improving forward expectations. The 1.5 PEG suggests growth is not particularly cheap relative to price, but it is not stretched either—this is fair-value GARP territory, not deep value. The Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places the company in the gray zone, meaning balance sheet risk is not trivial, especially with Debt/Equity at 5.90%, yet it is not flashing distress. With ROIC at 15.30% and an 18.90% operating margin, the business is operationally solid, but the 0.80% ROE reveals equity efficiency weakness. This is not a screaming mispricing; it is a cyclical materials name priced for moderation, not collapse.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As an aluminum producer in the Basic Materials sector, AA’s exposure to AI is indirect but real—data centers, electrification, and AI infrastructure require lightweight, conductive materials. Aluminum demand tied to electrification and energy efficiency supports long-term volume relevance. However, the company’s adaptability depends more on cost structure and commodity cycles than proprietary technology leverage.

The Bull Case

A disciplined value or GARP investor could justify ownership based on operational efficiency and capital productivity. A 15.30% ROIC in a commodity-linked business is compelling, especially alongside an 18.90% operating margin, suggesting strong cost control in the current pricing environment. The Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates financial stability is neutral-to-positive rather than deteriorating, and a 1.4 current ratio supports short-term liquidity. Institutional ownership at 67.82% signals serious capital backing, while the forward P/E of 11.8 implies earnings normalization is already discounted. If earnings hold anywhere near current levels, the market may be underestimating cash generation durability.

The Bear Case

The red flags are structural. Debt/Equity at 5.90% materially amplifies cyclicality risk, and the Altman Z-Score of 2.2 reinforces that leverage cannot be ignored. ROE at 0.80% is strikingly weak relative to ROIC, suggesting capital structure drag or earnings volatility. The PEG of 1.5 does not offer a growth discount, and EPS is projected at $4.40 next year versus current EPS of 11, implying potential earnings compression. With only a 0.4 yield and a Dividend 5-Year Avg of 0, income support is negligible if the cycle turns.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

3.30%

Analyst Consensus

2.13

Average Analyst Price Target

$67.82

Institutional Ownership %

84.20%

1-Year Beta

1.75

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.50%%

Distance to 52-Week High

96.50%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

322.00%%