ALK

Alaska Air Group

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Industrials

industry

Airlines

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/20/26

Business Summary

Alaska Air Group operates as a network airline generating revenue through passenger ticket sales, ancillary services, and route density advantages across key regional hubs. Airlines monetize fixed assets—aircraft and gates—by maximizing load factors and yield per seat mile, making operational efficiency and pricing discipline central to cash generation. The business is highly sensitive to fuel costs, labor, and demand cycles, which explains the thin 2.40% operating margin. Its competitive moat is primarily regional network strength and brand loyalty rather than structural pricing power, meaning profitability depends more on execution and cost control than durable competitive barriers.

VALUATION

P/E

47.6

Market Cap ($M USD)

$4,475

Forward P/E

5.6

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

0.3

PRICE TO BOOK

1.1

EV / EBITDA

7.9

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

-

Annual Payout

-

Payout Ratio

0.00%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$0.85

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$7.11

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

4.60%

Return on Equity (ROE)

2.40%

Operating Margin

3.90%

Debt-to-Equity

1.7

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

1.1

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

1.80%%

Current Ratio

0.5

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 47.6x trailing earnings but only 5.6x forward earnings, the market is pricing in a dramatic earnings normalization, yet the balance sheet tells a far more fragile story. An Altman Z-Score of 1.1 signals elevated financial distress risk, and a razor-thin 2.40% operating margin combined with 1.80% ROIC suggests the core business barely clears its cost of capital. The 0.3 Price/Sales and 1.1 Price/Book ratios imply deep value optics, but a 4.60% ROE and 0.5 current ratio show limited profitability and weak liquidity. This is not a clean mispricing; it is a leveraged cyclical trading at a distressed multiple because the market questions durability, not because it has missed a high-quality compounder.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As an airline in the Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group operates in a capital-intensive, logistics-heavy industry where AI can enhance pricing optimization, route planning, and fuel efficiency. The industry’s ability to leverage data for yield management and operational efficiency will be central to margin expansion. However, with only a 2.40% operating margin, technological gains must be material to move the profitability needle.

The Bull Case

A value or GARP investor could argue the setup is asymmetric. The compression from a 47.6 P/E to a 5.6 forward P/E implies a major earnings reset that, if realized, makes the stock statistically cheap. The 0.3 Price/Sales and 1.1 Price/Book ratios suggest the market is valuing the enterprise close to asset value despite positive EPS of 7.9 and institutional ownership at 58.47%, indicating serious capital is still involved. A Piotroski F-Score of 5 is neutral but not broken, and even with modest 2.40% operating margins, incremental efficiency gains could significantly lift ROIC from its current 1.80%, creating torque in a cyclical recovery.

The Bear Case

The red flags are structural and hard to ignore. A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.90% paired with a 0.5 current ratio highlights balance sheet strain and weak short-term liquidity, while the Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places the company in financial distress territory. ROIC at 1.80% and ROE at 4.60% show poor capital efficiency, and EPS is expected to fall to $0.85 next year despite current EPS of 7.9, implying earnings volatility. With PEG Forward and Short % of Float not provided, visibility into growth-adjusted valuation and bearish positioning is limited, increasing uncertainty around the forward multiple.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

15.50%

Analyst Consensus

1.31

Average Analyst Price Target

$58.47

Institutional Ownership %

93.00%

1-Year Beta

1.8

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.50%%

Distance to 52-Week High

60.00%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

119.60%%