AGI

Alamos Gold

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Basic Materials

industry

Gold

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

Canada

Next Earnings Date

04/29/26

Business Summary

Alamos Gold generates cash by extracting, processing, and selling gold into global commodity markets, monetizing ore bodies through disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiency. The moat is asset-based: high-quality reserves, established mines, and the technical expertise required to sustain production at attractive margins. Its 19.90% operating margin and 20.70% ROIC indicate that its assets are productive and competitively positioned within the cost curve. Financial strength, evidenced by a 7.2 Altman Z-Score and solid liquidity, reinforces its ability to reinvest in exploration and development, sustaining long-term production capacity and cash flow generation.

VALUATION

P/E

23.1

Market Cap ($M USD)

$20,310

Forward P/E

14.6

PEG

0.6

PRICE TO SALES

11.3

PRICE TO BOOK

4.6

EV / EBITDA

15.1

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.20%

Annual Payout

$0.12

Payout Ratio

4.70%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

9.90%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$2.11

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$3.32

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

17.30%

Return on Equity (ROE)

19.90%

Operating Margin

48.60%

Debt-to-Equity

0.1

Piotroski F-Score

7

Altman Z-Score

7.2

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

20.70%%

Current Ratio

2

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 23.1x earnings and 14.6x forward earnings, the market is clearly pricing in earnings acceleration, and the 0.6 forward PEG suggests that growth expectations are not fully reflected in the multiple. A 7.2 Altman Z-Score signals exceptional balance sheet safety, essentially removing bankruptcy risk from the conversation, while a 17.30% ROE and 20.70% ROIC confirm this is not a marginal operator. The disconnect between a reasonable forward multiple and a high-quality balance sheet implies the stock is not egregiously overvalued despite a $20,310M market cap. This is not deep value, but it does look like a GARP name where financial strength and forward earnings power justify accumulation rather than caution.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a gold producer in the Basic Materials sector, the company’s direct AI exposure is limited, but it can benefit operationally from automation, predictive maintenance, and data-driven resource optimization. AI-driven geological modeling and cost optimization could structurally improve its 19.90% operating margin over time. However, its revenue remains tied to commodity pricing rather than technological disruption cycles.

The Bull Case

A GARP investor buys this because the fundamentals are clean and efficient: 20.70% ROIC against a 14.6 forward P/E is a strong value-to-quality equation. The Piotroski F-Score of 7 signals solid operational momentum and balance sheet discipline, while a 19.90% operating margin in a cyclical commodity business reflects cost control and asset quality. A 17.30% ROE combined with a manageable 48.60% debt-to-equity ratio shows leverage is being used constructively rather than recklessly. Layer in a 2.0 current ratio and a 7.2 Altman Z-Score, and you have a financially resilient operator with institutional sponsorship at 58.21%, suggesting smart money sees durability in the model.

The Bear Case

The red flags are valuation compression risk and sentiment fragility. A 23.1 trailing P/E in a commodity business leaves little room for earnings disappointment, and 9.90% short interest indicates a meaningful cohort is betting against the equity story. Debt-to-equity at 48.60% is not extreme, but in a downturn for gold pricing it can quickly pressure returns, especially with a thin 0.1 TTM yield offering minimal income support. The payout ratio listed at $0.12 and dividend profile provide little defensive cushion, so if growth implied by the 0.6 PEG fails to materialize, the multiple can contract sharply.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

2.00%

Analyst Consensus

1.31

Average Analyst Price Target

$58.21

Institutional Ownership %

70.00%

1-Year Beta

0.35

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.30%%

Distance to 52-Week High

87.50%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

204.10%%