ADC

Agree Realty

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Real Estate

industry

REIT - Retail

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/21/26

Business Summary

Agree Realty operates as a retail-focused REIT that acquires and leases freestanding properties to tenants under long-term agreements. The company generates cash primarily through contractual rental income, converting tenant occupancy into predictable cash flows that support dividends. Its moat lies in scale, access to capital markets, and relationships with national retail tenants, allowing it to source and finance properties competitively. The durability of its business depends on tenant credit quality and disciplined balance sheet management rather than operational innovation, making capital allocation its core competitive advantage.

VALUATION

P/E

44.3

Market Cap ($M USD)

$9,388

Forward P/E

39.1

PEG

7.9

PRICE TO SALES

12.1

PRICE TO BOOK

1.5

EV / EBITDA

20.9

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

4.00%

Annual Payout

$3.20

Payout Ratio

174.10%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

10+

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

5.60%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$1.77

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$2.00

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

16.00%

Return on Equity (ROE)

3.10%

Operating Margin

48.30%

Debt-to-Equity

0.5

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

1.7

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

3.80%%

Current Ratio

0.8

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 44.3x earnings and 39.1x forward earnings, ADC is priced like a growth compounder, yet the PEG Forward of 7.9 screams overvaluation relative to expected expansion. An Altman Z-Score of 1.7 places it in financial gray-zone territory, which is uncomfortable for a leveraged real estate vehicle with a Current Ratio of 0.8. The market is paying a premium multiple for a REIT generating a 3.10% operating margin and 3.80% ROIC—numbers that do not justify a near-40x forward multiple. This is not a deep value opportunity; it’s a fully priced income vehicle with balance sheet fragility risk baked in.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a retail-focused REIT, ADC’s exposure to AI is indirect and largely limited to tenant resilience in an evolving consumer landscape. Its ability to adapt hinges on leasing to retailers that integrate omnichannel and data-driven inventory systems rather than on proprietary technology. The real estate structure itself offers limited technological upside, making it more defensive than innovative in an AI-driven economy.

The Bull Case

A GARP-oriented investor could argue that a 16.00% Return on Equity in the REIT space is respectable, particularly when paired with institutional ownership of 84.32%, signaling strong professional sponsorship. The Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates operational stability rather than distress, and Debt/Equity at 48.30% is not excessive for real estate. A 4.00% dividend per share with a 10+% five-year average dividend growth rate suggests management is committed to returning capital, and the $9,388M market cap provides scale advantages in capital access. If earnings normalize toward the $1.77 forward estimate with continued disciplined capital allocation, the premium multiple could be sustained by income-focused investors seeking reliability over explosive growth.

The Bear Case

The bear case is blunt: a 7.9 forward PEG ratio combined with a 44.3 P/E is classic overpayment for modest growth. Operating Margin at 3.10% and ROIC at 3.80% indicate thin economic profitability, leaving little cushion if tenant demand weakens. An Altman Z-Score of 1.7 and a Current Ratio of 0.8 highlight liquidity and solvency concerns that should not coexist with premium valuation multiples. Add in 5.60% short interest and a payout ratio figure of $3.20 against forward EPS of $1.77, and the sustainability of the dividend growth narrative becomes a legitimate structural concern.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

0.00%

Analyst Consensus

1.75

Average Analyst Price Target

$84.32

Institutional Ownership %

110.80%

1-Year Beta

-0.13

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

1.80%%

Distance to 52-Week High

95.20%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

112.40%%