Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Fundamental Analysis: Bull vs. Bear Case

AFL

Aflac Incorporated

Fundamental data last updated:June 3, 2026

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company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Insurance - Life

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

US

Next Earnings Date

08/04/2026

Business Summary

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, long-term care and disability, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Columbus, Georgia.

VALUATION

P/E

12.58 Market Cap ($M USD)

$57.84B

Forward P/E

13.85 PEG

-1.50

PRICE TO SALES

3.17 PRICE TO BOOK

2.60 EV / EBITDA

9.06 5-Year Average P/E

Free Cash Flow Yield

5.07%

DCF Value

$168.47

Graham Number

$94.29

Price to FCF

19.71 EV to FCF

20.57 Earnings Yield

7.95%

FCF Yield

5.07%

DIVIDEND

Yield

2.09%

Annual Payout

$2.38

Payout Ratio

25.80%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$9.04

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$8.20

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

$1.74T

Return on Equity (ROE)

17.20%

FREE CASH FLOW

Operating Margin

30.97%

Debt-to-Equity

0.29 Piotroski F-Score

6 Altman Z-Score

1.33 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

4.69%

Current Ratio

0.00 Quick Ratio

0.00 Net Debt to EBITDA

0.38 Interest Coverage

24.53 Gross Profit margin

47.76%

FCF PER SHARE

$5.72

REVENUE PER SHARE

$35.52

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

Aflac Incorporated’s valuation presents a compelling narrative for deep value investors. Despite trading below its DCF value, the stock’s Forward P/E suggests a market cautious about future growth. The Earnings Yield indicates a reasonable return, yet the Altman Z-score raises red flags about financial stability. The Graham Number further supports the notion of undervaluation, hinting at potential upside. However, the market’s “Hold” consensus reflects a balanced view of risk and reward.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

Operating within the insurance industry, Aflac is well-positioned to leverage AI for risk assessment and customer service enhancements. The company's ability to integrate technology into its operations could streamline processes and improve efficiency. However, the traditional nature of insurance may slow rapid tech adoption compared to other sectors.

The Bull Case

For value and GARP investors, Aflac's appeal lies in its robust Return on Equity of 17.20% and a solid Operating Margin of 30.97%, indicating strong capital efficiency and pricing power. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 suggests decent financial health, while a modest FCF Yield highlights ongoing cash generation. These metrics paint a picture of a company with the potential for sustainable growth and shareholder returns.

The Bear Case

Despite its strengths, Aflac faces structural risks that cannot be ignored. The Price/Book and Price/Sales ratios suggest the stock may be overvalued relative to its assets and revenue. Additionally, the Altman Z-score signals potential financial distress, and the proximity to its 52-week high raises concerns about technical overextension. Investors should be wary of these vulnerabilities in the current market environment.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

Analyst Consensus

Hold

Average Analyst Price Target

$115.17

Institutional Ownership %

1-Year Beta

0.62 Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

Distance to 52-Week High

5.44%

Distance to 52-Week Low

14.68%

EARNINGS SURPRISE %

-2.23%

50-DAY SMA

$113.15

200-DAY SMA

$110.84

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Information may be delayed or inaccurate. We may earn a commission from partner links.