AFRM

Affirm Holdings

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Financial Services

industry

Credit Services

Exchange

Nasdaq

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/14/26

Business Summary

Affirm operates as a consumer credit platform that embeds point-of-sale financing into merchant checkout flows, monetizing through merchant fees and consumer interest structures. The company’s economic engine depends on underwriting precision: correctly pricing risk while maintaining high approval rates to drive merchant conversion. Its moat is data-driven — every transaction feeds underwriting models, improving credit segmentation and loss forecasting. Scale relationships with merchants and institutional funding channels create network effects that are difficult for smaller competitors to replicate, particularly when underwriting performance and capital efficiency are tightly linked.

VALUATION

P/E

59.9

Market Cap ($M USD)

$16,165

Forward P/E

12.9

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

4.6

PRICE TO BOOK

4.6

EV / EBITDA

23.3

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

-

Annual Payout

-

Payout Ratio

-

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$0.85

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$3.77

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

24.20%

Return on Equity (ROE)

8.00%

Operating Margin

17.90%

Debt-to-Equity

2.6

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

2.2

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

5.60%%

Current Ratio

66.9

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 59.9x trailing earnings but only 12.9x forward earnings, the market is clearly pricing in a sharp earnings inflection, and that compression alone makes AFRM statistically compelling if execution holds. A 4.6x Price/Sales and 4.6x Price/Book multiple are not stretched relative to a 24.20% ROE and 8.00% operating margin, suggesting the business is producing real economic returns rather than purely narrative-driven growth. However, the 2.2 Altman Z-Score sits in the gray zone, meaning balance sheet safety is adequate but not fortress-level, and investors are implicitly betting that forward earnings of $0.85 justify the rerating. This is a classic GARP setup: multiple contraction plus operating leverage — but only if credit quality and funding conditions remain stable.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Credit Services platform, AFRM operates in a data-heavy underwriting environment where AI-driven risk modeling is not optional but foundational. The ability to refine credit decisioning algorithms directly influences operating margin and ROE, both of which are already respectable at 8.00% and 24.20%. In a tech-forward lending ecosystem, scale and data density become structural advantages.

The Bull Case

A GARP investor buys this because the forward P/E of 12.9 against a trailing 59.9 implies dramatic earnings acceleration without a corresponding sales multiple bubble at 4.6x. Return on Equity at 24.20% and ROIC at 5.60% show the company is generating returns above its capital base, while an 8.00% operating margin signals improving operating discipline in a historically margin-sensitive industry. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates fundamental stability rather than distress, and institutional ownership at 82.19% suggests sophisticated capital is already committed. With a manageable Debt/Equity of 17.90% and a strong Current Ratio of 66.9, liquidity appears robust, creating room for scaling without immediate balance sheet strain.

The Bear Case

The biggest red flag is the valuation gap between a 59.9 trailing P/E and the assumption embedded in the 12.9 forward P/E — if the $0.85 EPS estimate falters, the multiple story collapses. The Altman Z-Score of 2.2 is not comfortably safe, particularly in a credit-sensitive business where macro deterioration can quickly impair receivables. A PEG Forward listed as unavailable removes visibility into growth-adjusted valuation, and without clarity on short interest, we cannot dismiss latent bearish positioning. Furthermore, a ROIC of 5.60% is modest relative to the risk profile of unsecured consumer credit, and any deterioration in operating margin from 8.00% could materially compress equity returns.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

5.60%

Analyst Consensus

1.52

Average Analyst Price Target

$82.19

Institutional Ownership %

85.20%

1-Year Beta

2.51

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

4.40%%

Distance to 52-Week High

48.50%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

126.60%%