AGRO

Adecoagro

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Consumer Defensive

industry

Farm Products

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/11/26

Business Summary

The company designs and manufactures large-scale agricultural and construction machinery, monetizing both equipment sales and an ecosystem of parts and services that create recurring cash flow. Its moat is rooted in brand loyalty, dealer networks, and embedded equipment fleets that lock customers into long replacement cycles. High upfront machinery costs create switching friction, while ongoing service, financing, and parts reinforce lifetime customer value. Cash generation is driven by scale efficiencies and operating margins that remain strong even in cyclical environments, allowing it to reinvest in product innovation while sustaining dividends.

VALUATION

P/E

-

Market Cap ($M USD)

$2,050

Forward P/E

10.8

PEG

1

PRICE TO SALES

1.4

PRICE TO BOOK

1.2

EV / EBITDA

9.9

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

2.40%

Annual Payout

$0.35

Payout Ratio

148.50%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

3

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$0.23

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.33

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

-2.90%

Return on Equity (ROE)

1.70%

Operating Margin

6.30%

Debt-to-Equity

1.2

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

1.5

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

3.70%%

Current Ratio

2.8

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 34.1x trailing earnings and 26.3x forward earnings, the stock is not statistically cheap, especially with EPS expected to decline to 17.78 next year. The compression from a 34.1 P/E to 26.3 forward suggests the market anticipates normalization, but the absence of a PEG ratio and the elevated multiple relative to 9.60% ROE and 8.80% ROIC implies growth is not dramatically outpacing valuation. That said, an Altman Z-Score of 3.3 and a Current Ratio of 2.3 signal solid balance sheet stability, reducing bankruptcy risk and supporting cyclical durability. This is not a distressed value play; it is a financially sound industrial franchise priced for resilience rather than explosive growth, and any mispricing would hinge on whether margins hold at current levels.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery manufacturer, the company sits at the center of automation in agriculture and construction, industries increasingly integrating AI-driven precision systems. The operating margin of 18.30% suggests enough profitability to fund ongoing tech integration without straining capital structure. Its scale and institutional ownership base position it to absorb digital transformation rather than be disrupted by it.

The Bull Case

A GARP investor can justify ownership based on quality metrics rather than headline valuation. An 18.30% operating margin in heavy machinery is elite for the sector, and 8.80% ROIC combined with 9.60% ROE demonstrates disciplined capital deployment despite cyclicality. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates fundamentally stable operations without major deterioration, and a manageable Debt/Equity ratio of 18.00% provides flexibility through downturns. With a 2.4 TTM yield and a 5% five-year dividend average growth rate, shareholders are compensated while waiting, and institutional ownership at 667.87 underscores strong professional sponsorship.

The Bear Case

The red flags are impossible to ignore. EPS is 18.9 while next year’s estimate drops to 17.78, signaling earnings contraction despite a still-elevated 34.1 P/E and 26.3 forward P/E. The lack of a PEG ratio combined with a 12.50% short float suggests skepticism around near-term growth sustainability, and a Price/Book of 6.2 is aggressive for a capital-intensive industrial business. Sales Growth Next Year listed at 23.03 without a percentage context raises questions about deceleration risk, and a 9.60% ROE does not justify premium multiples if the cycle turns. If margins compress even modestly from 18.30%, the multiple could unwind quickly.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

1.50%

Analyst Consensus

2.67

Average Analyst Price Target

$12.28

Institutional Ownership %

14.70%

1-Year Beta

0.05

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

74.30%%

Distance to 52-Week High

90.50%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

208.70%%