VST

Vistra

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Utilities

industry

Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

05/07/26

Business Summary

Vistra generates cash by owning and operating power generation assets and selling electricity into competitive wholesale and retail markets. Unlike regulated utilities with guaranteed returns, it relies on market pricing, capacity payments, and disciplined hedging to protect margins. Its moat is scale and asset diversity within deregulated regions, allowing it to optimize dispatch and manage volatility better than smaller competitors. Cash flow strength ultimately depends on power price spreads and efficient capital allocation, making operational execution the core competitive advantage rather than regulatory protection.

VALUATION

P/E

70.9

Market Cap ($M USD)

$52,383

Forward P/E

14.5

PEG

0.9

PRICE TO SALES

3

PRICE TO BOOK

20

EV / EBITDA

14.7

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.60%

Annual Payout

$0.91

Payout Ratio

40.60%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

6

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

8.70%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$2.22

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$10.70

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

7.70%

Return on Equity (ROE)

14.80%

Operating Margin

12.00%

Debt-to-Equity

3.9

Piotroski F-Score

5

Altman Z-Score

1.4

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

7.30%%

Current Ratio

0.8

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 70.9x trailing earnings, this is optically expensive, but the 14.5 forward P/E and 0.9 forward PEG scream earnings normalization and forward growth acceleration. The market is discounting a major EPS reset from 14.7 to 2.22 next year, which explains the distorted trailing multiple, yet the sub‑1.0 PEG suggests growth is being underappreciated relative to price. The real concern is balance sheet fragility: an Altman Z-Score of 1.4 and a current ratio of 0.8 indicate tight liquidity and elevated financial risk, particularly in a capital-intensive utilities business. This is not a “safe utility” multiple — it’s a leveraged power generator being priced for forward earnings compression but potential rebound. The market isn’t mispricing safety; it’s pricing in risk and demanding growth execution to justify it.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Utilities – Independent Power Producer, Vistra sits at the center of electrification demand that AI data centers and digital infrastructure require. Rising power consumption tied to AI workloads structurally benefits generation assets, especially in deregulated markets. The company’s ability to supply scalable, dispatchable electricity positions it as a direct beneficiary of long-term AI-driven load growth.

The Bull Case

A GARP investor buys this because the forward setup is materially different from the backward optics. A 14.5 forward P/E combined with a 0.9 PEG suggests earnings growth is expected at a rate that outpaces valuation, which is rare in utilities. Operating margins of 14.80% and ROIC of 7.30% demonstrate that capital is being deployed above many regulated utility benchmarks, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5 signals operational stability rather than deterioration. The 3.9 yield adds total return support, and with a $52,383M market cap and 8.70% short interest, any upside surprise into the 05/07/26 earnings window could force covering pressure. For investors willing to tolerate leverage, this is a growth-tilted utility trading at a growth-adjusted discount.

The Bear Case

Debt / Equity of 12.00% paired with an Altman Z-Score of 1.4 and a current ratio of 0.8 is a flashing warning light in a capital-heavy industry where refinancing risk matters. EPS collapsing from 14.7 to an estimated 2.22 next year signals earnings volatility that undermines the reliability typically expected from utilities. Price / Book at 20 is extreme for a power producer, implying minimal asset cushion relative to equity valuation. Short interest at 8.70% shows a meaningful faction of the market is betting against the story, and with ROE at just 7.70%, equity returns are not compensating for balance sheet risk. This is not defensive infrastructure — it is a leveraged commodity-exposed operator vulnerable to pricing cycles.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

3.00%

Analyst Consensus

1.11

Average Analyst Price Target

$240.35

Institutional Ownership %

92.50%

1-Year Beta

1.62

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

0.80%%

Distance to 52-Week High

70.40%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

149.70%%