BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Real Estate

industry

REIT - Mortgage

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/29/26

Business Summary

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a mortgage REIT that originates and holds commercial real estate loans, generating income primarily from the spread between borrowing costs and the interest earned on its loan portfolio. Its cash flow depends on disciplined underwriting and maintaining favorable financing terms relative to asset yields. The moat is not technological but relational and structural—access to institutional capital and deal flow within large-scale commercial real estate markets. Scale and capital access allow it to compete on large transactions, but its earnings power is inherently cyclical and tightly linked to credit conditions and interest rate spreads.

VALUATION

P/E

30.6

Market Cap ($M USD)

$3,307

Forward P/E

10.1

PEG

0.4

PRICE TO SALES

6.1

PRICE TO BOOK

1

EV / EBITDA

-

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

9.60%

Annual Payout

$1.88

Payout Ratio

293.80%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-5.40%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$0.64

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$1.95

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

-10.50%

Return on Equity (ROE)

3.10%

Operating Margin

39.40%

Debt-to-Equity

4.6

Piotroski F-Score

6

Altman Z-Score

0.1

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

5.60%%

Current Ratio

-

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 30.6x trailing earnings but only 10.1x forward earnings with a PEG Forward of 0.4, the market is clearly discounting near-term volatility while pricing in a material earnings rebound next year. That disconnect suggests expectations for stabilization, yet the Altman Z-Score of 0.1 signals extreme balance sheet stress and elevated financial risk. A Price/Book of 1 implies the market values the equity roughly at liquidation value, reinforcing the idea that investors are focused on survival rather than growth. This is not a clean growth story—it is a leveraged credit vehicle priced for fragility, where the upside comes from normalization but the downside is tied directly to solvency risk.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a mortgage REIT in the Real Estate sector, BXMT’s exposure to AI is indirect and largely operational rather than transformational. Technology can improve underwriting, risk modeling, and portfolio surveillance, but it does not fundamentally alter the economics of leveraged real estate lending. Its resilience to tech disruption is moderate, as its competitive position depends more on capital access and credit discipline than digital innovation.

The Bull Case

A value or GARP investor could justify an entry based on the sharp compression from a 30.6 P/E to a 10.1 Forward P/E and a PEG Forward of 0.4, implying meaningful earnings acceleration relative to price. The Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates improving or stable financial conditions rather than deterioration, and a 5.60% ROIC shows the company is still generating returns above zero despite sector stress. Operating margin at 3.10%, while thin, remains positive, and a TTM Yield of 4.6 combined with a Dividend Per Share of 9.60% suggests tangible income support. Trading at 1x book with a $3,307M market cap, the stock offers classic deep-value optionality if credit conditions stabilize and earnings normalize to the projected $0.64 next year.

The Bear Case

The bear case is dominated by balance sheet fragility: a Debt/Equity ratio of 39.40% in a mortgage REIT structure magnifies credit risk, and the Altman Z-Score of 0.1 screams distress. Return on Equity at -10.50% shows shareholder capital is currently being destroyed, not compounded. The Payout Ratio of $1.88 raises sustainability concerns relative to projected earnings of $0.64 next year, while a Short % of Float at -5.40% indicates active skepticism in the market. With an operating margin of just 3.10% and no reported EPS, this is a thin-margin, highly levered lender where small credit losses could overwhelm equity.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

6.50%

Analyst Consensus

1.89

Average Analyst Price Target

$21.29

Institutional Ownership %

65.30%

1-Year Beta

0.72

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

1.20%%

Distance to 52-Week High

94.90%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

117.30%%