AMBP

Ardagh Metal Packaging

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Consumer Cyclical

industry

Packaging & Containers

Exchange

NYSE

County of HQ

Luxembourg

Next Earnings Date

04/23/26

Business Summary

Ardagh Metal Packaging generates cash by manufacturing and supplying metal beverage packaging at scale, selling into large consumer brands that demand reliability and volume consistency. The business model is capital intensive, relying on high plant utilization and long-term customer relationships to drive steady throughput. Its moat is rooted in scale, embedded supply contracts, and the logistical complexity of global packaging distribution. Cash generation depends on operational efficiency, disciplined capacity management, and maintaining margins in a commoditized but high-volume industry.

VALUATION

P/E

-

Market Cap ($M USD)

$2,462

Forward P/E

13.8

PEG

-

PRICE TO SALES

0.5

PRICE TO BOOK

-

EV / EBITDA

9.7

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

9.70%

Annual Payout

$0.40

Payout Ratio

-

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

0

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

-

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

-$0.02

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$0.30

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

2.50%

Return on Equity (ROE)

1.60%

Operating Margin

4.40%

Debt-to-Equity

-

Piotroski F-Score

4

Altman Z-Score

1.1

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

4.70%%

Current Ratio

1.1

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 0.5x sales and 13.8x forward earnings, the market is clearly pricing AMBP as a low-growth, balance-sheet-constrained cyclical rather than a compounder. The 1.1 Altman Z-Score is deep in distress territory, and a 4.40 Debt/Equity ratio confirms the balance sheet is aggressively levered, which explains the discounted multiple. Yet the absence of a trailing P/E and a forward multiple that is not demanding suggests investors are betting on stabilization rather than growth. This is not a premium story; it is a leveraged value stub where survival and modest execution could justify upside, but financial fragility caps enthusiasm.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Packaging & Containers company in the Consumer Cyclical sector, AMBP operates in a capital-intensive, asset-heavy segment where AI disruption is indirect rather than existential. Technology adoption will likely center on manufacturing automation, logistics optimization, and cost control rather than product reinvention. Its resilience to AI disruption is moderate, but its upside from AI is incremental efficiency gains, not structural margin transformation.

The Bull Case

A value or GARP investor could justify a position based on sheer compression: 0.5x Price/Sales for a business generating a 4.70% ROIC and positive 1.60% operating margins implies the market has little faith in operational improvement. The 4 Piotroski F-Score signals mediocre but not collapsing fundamentals, suggesting stabilization rather than deterioration. Return on Equity at 2.50% is modest but positive, and a 1.1 current ratio indicates near-term liquidity is tight but intact. If management can expand margins even slightly while maintaining ROIC above its cost of capital, the 13.8 forward P/E could compress quickly, giving multiple expansion leverage to even minor operational progress.

The Bear Case

The red flags are glaring. A 4.40 Debt/Equity ratio paired with a 1.1 Altman Z-Score screams balance sheet risk, and with operating margins at just 1.60%, there is virtually no cushion for cyclical demand shocks. EPS next year is estimated at -$0.02, signaling earnings pressure despite a seemingly reasonable forward P/E, and Return on Equity of 2.50% does not compensate investors for the leverage taken. This is a thin-margin, heavily levered structure where even small revenue or cost disruptions could impair equity value significantly.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

3.60%

Analyst Consensus

2.88

Average Analyst Price Target

$4.74

Institutional Ownership %

21.30%

1-Year Beta

1.14

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

76.00%%

Distance to 52-Week High

81.90%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

157.60%%