AAON

AAON

Fundamental data last updated:April 13, 2026

company profile

SECTOR

Industrials

industry

Building Products & Equipment

Exchange

Nasdaq

County of HQ

United States

Next Earnings Date

04/29/26

Business Summary

AAON designs and manufactures specialized building equipment within the industrial supply chain, monetizing demand from commercial construction and retrofit cycles. Cash flow is generated through engineered-to-order and standardized equipment sales, where operational efficiency drives its 12.00% operating margin. Its moat stems from manufacturing expertise, product reliability, and established contractor relationships that create repeat specification in projects. The company converts disciplined capital allocation into steady returns, using moderate leverage and controlled payout policies to preserve reinvestment capacity while maintaining financial resilience.

VALUATION

P/E

72.5

Market Cap ($M USD)

$7,625

Forward P/E

31.5

PEG

1.5

PRICE TO SALES

5.4

PRICE TO BOOK

8.5

EV / EBITDA

35.6

5-Year Average P/E

DIVIDEND

Yield

0.40%

Annual Payout

$0.40

Payout Ratio

30.30%

Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth

1

5-Year Dividend Growth Rate

9.60%

Financial Health & Profitability

Earnings Per Share

$1.32

Next Year EPS Growth Estimate

$2.96

Next Year Revenue Growth Estimate

13.10%

Return on Equity (ROE)

12.00%

Operating Margin

10.60%

Debt-to-Equity

0.5

Piotroski F-Score

3

Altman Z-Score

8

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

10.60%%

Current Ratio

2.6

Quick Ratio

Gainseekers Quantitative Analysis

Summary

At 72.5x earnings with a Forward P/E of 31.5 and a PEG of 1.5, AAON is priced as a premium growth industrial despite only delivering a 13.10% ROE and 12.00% operating margins. The compression from a 72.5 trailing multiple to 31.5 forward suggests the market expects a sharp earnings step-up, yet that optimism already appears embedded in a 5.4x sales and 8.5x book multiple. The balance sheet is unquestionably safe with an Altman Z-Score of 8 and a modest 10.60% Debt/Equity ratio, eliminating bankruptcy risk as a concern. This is not a distressed mispricing — it’s a high-expectation stock where execution must be near flawless to justify valuation.

AI Exposure / Tech Reliance

As a Building Products & Equipment company within Industrials, AAON operates in a segment increasingly influenced by smart infrastructure, automation, and energy efficiency trends. AI-driven building optimization and data-integrated HVAC systems could enhance demand for higher-spec equipment, indirectly supporting pricing power. However, its exposure is cyclical and hardware-based, meaning it benefits more from tech-enabled upgrades than from AI-native scalability.

The Bull Case

A GARP investor could justify ownership based on capital discipline and financial stability: a 10.60% ROIC exceeding its 10.60% Debt/Equity ratio signals measured leverage and productive capital deployment. The 12.00% operating margin in an industrial business reflects pricing power and operational control, while the 2.6 current ratio reinforces liquidity strength. Institutional Ownership at 114.50% indicates strong professional sponsorship, and a 0.5 yield with a 1% five-year average dividend history suggests shareholder return discipline without overdistribution. The Altman Z-Score of 8 removes solvency risk from the equation, making this a fundamentally sturdy operator positioned for earnings expansion implied by the 31.5 Forward P/E.

The Bear Case

The Piotroski F-Score of 3 is a glaring red flag, signaling weak underlying financial momentum despite the premium valuation. A PEG of 1.5 is not cheap for a cyclical industrial name, especially when paired with a 9.60% Short % of Float, indicating meaningful skepticism from the market. At 72.5x earnings and 8.5x book value, investors are paying growth-stock multiples for a company generating a 13.10% ROE — hardly elite performance. If the forward earnings expectations embedded in the 31.5 multiple falter, multiple compression could be severe given the already elevated Price/Sales of 5.4.

Market Sentiment & Smart Money

Short Interest %

13.70%

Analyst Consensus

1.33

Average Analyst Price Target

$114.50

Institutional Ownership %

92.10%

1-Year Beta

1.84

Insider Buying % (6 Mo)

16.90%%

Distance to 52-Week High

80.30%%

Distance to 52-Week Low

150.30%%